[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 February 18 issued 2350 UT on 12 Feb 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Tue Feb 13 10:50:49 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Feb:  79/19

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Feb             14 Feb             15 Feb
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 12 Feb. Active Region 
2699 (currently at S08W26) produced several flares. The largest 
flare, C1.5, peaked at 0135 UT and was accompanied by a partial 
halo CME, which became visible in LASCO imagery at 0125 UT. Very 
low to low levels of solar flare activity are expected for the 
next three UT days, 13-15 Feb, with a weak chance for an isolated 
M-class flare. The CME is expected to arrive by the end of the 
UT day 14 Feb. The solar wind speed on UT day 12 Feb was near 
the background levels, varying in the range 310-340 km/s. During 
the UT day 12 Feb, the IMF Bt fluctuated between 3 nT and 7 nT 
and its Bz component was between -3 nT and +5 nT. On 13 Feb the 
solar wind speed is expected to be mostly near its background 
levels. By the end of 14 Feb the speed may increase due to arrival 
of the CME.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12210021
      Cocos Island         2   02200020
      Darwin               3   12210011
      Townsville           5   12211122
      Learmonth            5   12311021
      Alice Springs        3   12210021
      Culgoora             4   12210022
      Gingin               3   12210021
      Canberra             3   12210011
      Launceston           6   13320121
      Hobart               5   13310011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     1   02200000
      Casey               12   25411022
      Mawson               8   12312141
      Davis                7   13312031

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   1000 0101     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Feb     5    Quiet
14 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active
15 Feb    28    Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels across 
the Australian region during the UT day, 12 February. Mostly 
quiet and at times unsettled to active conditions were experienced 
in the Antarctic region. Mostly quiet conditions are expected 
for 13-14 February. However, by the end of the UT day the CME 
is expected to arrive. This may result in increase of the geomagnetic 
activity up to minor storm levels.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor
15 Feb      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: MUFs are expected to remain mostly near monthly predicted 
levels for 13 February. Degraded HF conditions are expected at 
the end of UT day 14 Feb and during 15 Feb due to expected increase 
in geomagnetic activity.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
12 Feb     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      -6
Feb      4
Mar      3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Feb     4    Near predicted monthly values
14 Feb    10    Near predicted monthly values
15 Feb    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values during 
the local day on 12 Feb over the Australian region. There were 
very few incidence of Sporadic E blanketing over the Australian 
Ionosonde sites. The two day outlook (13-14 Feb) is for MUFs 
near predicted monthly values. Enhanced MUFs are expected on 
15 Feb due to expected increase in geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+04   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Feb
Speed: 314 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:    12200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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