[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 February 18 issued 2330 UT on 11 Feb 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 12 10:30:26 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Feb:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Feb             13 Feb             14 Feb
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 11 February, 
with several B-class flares all erupting from Active Region 2699. 
Region 2699 is currently located just past the solar centre (S09W12) 
and had shown some sign of decay. Very low levels of solar flare 
activity is expected for the next three days (12-14 Feb), with 
a chance of C-class flares and a very weak chance of an isolated 
M-class flare. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
imagery during the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed on UT 
day 11 February was near the background levels. During the UT 
day 11 February, the IMF Bt fluctuated between 3 nT and 7 nT 
and its Bz component was between -2 nT and 5 nT. The two day 
outlook (12-13 Feb) is for the solar wind speed to be mostly 
near background levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 11 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100101
      Cocos Island         0   10000100
      Darwin               2   11110101
      Townsville           1   11100011
      Learmonth            1   11000101
      Alice Springs        1   11100001
      Culgoora             1   11100001
      Gingin               0   01000100
      Canberra             1   11100000
      Launceston           3   12210101
      Hobart               1   01200000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     0   01100000
      Casey                9   33420201
      Mawson               5   21212112
      Davis                6   22321211

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   1113 2121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Feb     7    Quiet
13 Feb     5    Quiet
14 Feb     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the 
Australian region during the UT day, 11 February. Mostly quiet 
and at times unsettled conditions were experienced in the Antarctic 
region. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for 12-13 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs are expected to remain mostly near monthly predicted 
levels, today (12 February).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Feb     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      -6
Feb      4
Mar      3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Feb     4    Near predicted monthly values
13 Feb     4    Near predicted monthly values
14 Feb     4    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were slightly depressed during the local day of 
UT day 11 Feb over the Northern Australian regions. At other 
Aus/NZ regions, MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly levels 
on UT day 11 Feb. There were very few incidence of Sporadic E 
blanketing over the Australian Ionosonde sites. The three day 
outlook (12-14 Feb) is for MUFs to be weakly depressed to near 
monthly predicted levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Feb
Speed: 342 km/sec  Density:   12.8 p/cc  Temp:    22500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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