[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 February 18 issued 2330 UT on 02 Feb 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 3 10:30:55 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 FEBRUARY - 05 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Feb: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Feb 04 Feb 05 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was at Very Low levels on UT day 02 Feb.
Very Low levels of solar flare activity are expected for the
next three days (03-05 Feb). The large filament mentioned in
yesterday's report appears to have fragmented and is currently
more fragile. Solar wind speeds were at nominal levels over the
UT day, 02 Feb and are expected to remain at these levels today,03
Feb. Possible enhancement in the solar wind parameters from 04
Feb due to minor coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Feb : A K
Australian Region 1 11010110
Cocos Island 2 11010120
Darwin 2 10011111
Townsville 3 21011111
Learmonth 3 21010220
Culgoora 1 11010110
Gingin 1 10000120
Canberra 2 21010110
Launceston 3 21111120
Hobart 2 11110110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 00100000
Casey 10 33431120
Mawson 9 33211232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs NA
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 2000 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Feb 5 Quiet
04 Feb 12 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at Quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day, 02 Feb. Mostly Quiet conditions
expected today,03 Feb. Possible Unsettled periods on 04-05 Feb
due to weak coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions are possible today, 03 Feb.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Feb -12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -6
Feb 4
Mar 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
04 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
05 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUFs depressions observed for Northern
AUS and Equatorial regions during local night. Mostly normal
ionospheric support for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions.
Incidence of Sporadic E were still evident over some SWS stations.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Feb
Speed: 423 km/sec Density: 8.0 p/cc Temp: 239000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list