[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 February 18 issued 2330 UT on 01 Feb 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 2 10:30:41 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was at Very Low levels on UT day 01 Feb.
Very Low levels of solar flare activity are expected for the
next three days (02-04 Feb). A large filament in the NE quadrant,
however it remained stable at the time of this report. Solar
wind speed ranged between ~400km/s and ~450km/s over the UT day,
01 Feb. The total magnetic field of the IMF, Bt was around 5nT
while Bz, north-south component of the IMF ranged between +/-4nT.
Solar wind is expected to remain at nominal speeds over the next
2 days, 02-03 Feb. Possible enhancement in the solar wind parameters
from 04 Feb due to minor coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 20110022
Cocos Island 1 11000011
Darwin 1 11100011
Townsville 3 20111022
Learmonth 3 20110022
Culgoora 2 10010022
Gingin 3 21010022
Canberra 2 20000022
Launceston 3 20110022
Hobart 3 20100022
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 10000011
Casey 13 34421123
Mawson 14 32212154
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs NA
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 0022 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Feb 5 Quiet
03 Feb 5 Quiet
04 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at Quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day, 01 Feb. Mostly Quiet conditions
expected for the next 2 days, 02-03 Feb. Possible Unsettled periods
on day three, 04 Feb due to weak coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions are possible at times today, 02 Feb.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Feb -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -6
Feb 4
Mar 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values
03 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values
04 Feb -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed for Equatorial regions during
local night and during local day for Northern and Southern AUS/NZ
regions over the last 24 hours. Continued sporadic E conditions
for some SWS stations. Similar conditions are expected for the
next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jan
Speed: 369 km/sec Density: 9.8 p/cc Temp: 113000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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