[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 February 18 issued 2330 UT on 03 Feb 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 4 10:30:22 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 FEBRUARY - 06 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Feb: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Feb 05 Feb 06 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was at Very Low levels on UT day 03 Feb.
Very Low levels of solar flare activity are expected for the
next three days (04-06 Feb). The solar wind speed during UT day
03 Feb remained near the nominal level of 325 km/s. During the
UT day 03 Feb, the IMF Bt was steady near 4 nT and the Bz component
of IMF fluctuated between -3 nT and +2 nT. During the next UT
day 04 Feb, the solar wind speed is expected to increase to moderate
values due to expected arrival of the corotating interaction
region associated with a recurrent positive polarity coronal
hole. STEREO A shows that this coronal hole produced winds in
excess of 600 km/s for three consecutive days however it is expected
to have a reduced influence on the Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 11120111
Cocos Island 1 11010011
Darwin 1 10110011
Townsville 4 11121112
Learmonth 2 11110111
Culgoora 2 10120011
Gingin 3 11011112
Canberra 1 00120001
Launceston 3 11121111
Hobart 2 01121101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Feb :
Macquarie Island 1 00120001
Casey 7 23321121
Mawson 15 22211155
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1010 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Feb 15 Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of an isolated
active period.
05 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Feb 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at Quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day, 03 Feb. During the next
UT day, 04 Feb, geomagnetic activity is expected to increase
from Quiet to Unsettled levels with a chance of an isolated Active
period due to minor coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions are possible today, 04 Feb.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Feb -11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -6
Feb 4
Mar 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
05 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
06 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Depressed HF propagation conditions observed during
03 Feb due to low EUV radiation. Equatorial SWS data for 03 Feb
has been interrupted due to technical issues. Incidence of Sporadic
E were still evident over some SWS stations. A minor increase
in geomagnetic activity is expected during 04-05 Feb. This may
lead to deeper depressions during 05-06 Feb.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Feb
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 101000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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