[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 December 18 issued 2330 UT on 29 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 30 10:30:18 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Dec: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Dec 31 Dec 01 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 29 December.
There are currently no sunspot regions on the visible solar disc.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next three
UT days, 30 December-1 January. No Earth directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind during the
last 24 hours gradually decreased, currently ~ 500 km/s. This
was in response to the waning effects of a recurrent positive
polarity coronal hole. During this period the total IMF (Bt)
varied between 4 nT and 7 nT and the north-south component of
IMF (Bz) fluctuated between +/-4 nT. Expect the solar wind to
further decline and return to nominal levels over the next two
UT days, 30-31 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 22222221
Cocos Island 3 12112110
Darwin 6 22222211
Townsville 8 32222222
Learmonth 8 32222222
Alice Springs 7 23222211
Culgoora 6 22222221
Canberra 8 23321221
Launceston 10 33322222
Hobart 7 23321211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Dec :
Macquarie Island 11 12443211
Mawson 19 44332424
Davis 18 34443323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 19 4442 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Dec 7 Quiet
01 Jan 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 29 December. Quiet to Active
levels were observed in Antarctica. This was in response to high-speed
solar wind streams associated with a recurrent coronal hole.
During the next UT day, 30 December, geomagnetic activity is
expected to be mainly Quiet, with possible Unsettled periods
as the effects of the coronal hole wane, returning to Quiet conditions
on UT days 31 December- 1 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
31 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions are possible today,30
December as a consequence of the continued very low levels of
ionising radiation from the Sun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Dec -35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 30% during local night
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -32
Dec -8
Jan -9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Dec -40 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
31 Dec -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: On 29 December, MUFs ranged from Moderate depressions
to near predicted monthly values. Periods of Blanketing Sporadic
E conditions were seen across the Australian region. Similar
levels of ionospheric support expected for the next 24 hours
due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Dec
Speed: 560 km/sec Density: 9.4 p/cc Temp: 228000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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