[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 December 18 issued 2330 UT on 30 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 31 10:30:19 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Dec: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Dec 01 Jan 02 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 30 December.
There are currently no sunspot regions on the visible solar disc.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next three
UT days, 31 December- 02 January. No Earth directed CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. During the last
24 hours, the solar wind remained enhanced under the continued
influence of a recurrent positive polarity coronal hole, currently
~~ 540 km/s. During this period the total IMF (Bt) varied between
3 nT and 7 nT and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated
between +/-4 nT. Expect the solar wind to decline and return
to nominal levels over the next two UT days 31 December- 01 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 12221211
Cocos Island 5 12221220
Darwin 4 12221210
Townsville 6 22222211
Learmonth 6 12222222
Alice Springs 5 12221211
Culgoora 5 12221211
Canberra 7 13321211
Launceston 11 23332322
Hobart 7 13321211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Dec :
Macquarie Island 10 12433211
Mawson 19 44343333
Davis 22 44443433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 2232 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jan 7 Quiet
02 Jan 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Australian region on UT day 30 December with some Unsettled
periods at higher latitude locations. Quiet to Active levels
were observed in Antarctica. This was in response to high-speed
solar wind streams associated with a recurrent coronal hole.
During the next three UT days, 31 December 02 January, geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mainly Quiet, with possible Unsettled
periods today 31 December as the effects of the coronal hole
wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Near predicted to slightly depressed MUFs are expected
for the next three days, as a consequence of very low levels
of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Dec -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -32
Dec -8
Jan -9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Dec -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Jan -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on 29 December
and is current for 30-31 Dec. On UT day 30 December, MUFs were
mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian region.
Strong Sporadic E layers were seen across the Australian region.
Near predicted to weakly depressed MUFs are expected for the
next three days, as a consequence of very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Dec
Speed: 527 km/sec Density: 8.4 p/cc Temp: 171000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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