[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 December 18 issued 2330 UT on 28 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 29 10:30:18 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Dec:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Dec             30 Dec             31 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 28 December. 
There are currently no sunspot regions on the visible solar disc. 
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next three 
UT days, 29-31 December. No Earth directed CMEs were observed 
in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 28 December, 
the solar wind speed was strong, currently around 600 km/s. This 
is due to high-speed solar wind streams associated with a positive 
polarity recurrent coronal hole. During the last 24 hours, the 
total IMF (Bt) varied between 5 nT and 13 nT and the north-south 
component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between -12 and +10 nT. The 
solar wind speed is expected to stay at these enhanced levels 
during the next 24 hours as the effects of the coronal hole persist.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Dec: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 28 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region      14   32433332
      Cocos Island        10   22333231
      Darwin              12   32333331
      Townsville          14   32433332
      Learmonth           14   32433332
      Alice Springs       13   32333332
      Culgoora            11   22433222
      Canberra            12   32433222
      Launceston          13   32433322
      Hobart              13   32433322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Dec :
      Macquarie Island    20   22545321
      Mawson              40   55444365
      Davis               41   44644365

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              11   (Quiet)
      Canberra            20   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             24                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              3   1100 0112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Dec    15    Quiet to Active
30 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled
31 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on UT day 28 December. Storm levels 
were observed in Antarctica. This was in response to high-speed 
solar wind streams associated with a recurrent coronal hole. 
During the next three UT days, 29-31 December, geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels. There is a chance 
for isolated Active periods to occur today, 29 December because 
the solar wind speed is still high.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
30 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
31 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor to Moderate MUF depressions are possible today,29 
December as a consequence of the continued very low levels of 
ionising radiation from the Sun and recent increase in geomagnetic 
activity.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Dec   -28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -32
Dec      -8
Jan      -9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Dec   -40    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
30 Dec   -40    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
31 Dec   -20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on 26 December 
and is current for 27-29 Dec. On 28 December, MUFs ranged from 
Minor depressions to near predicted monthly values, with some 
severe MUF depressions during the local night in the Niue Island 
and Northern Australian regions. Strong Sporadic E layers were 
seen across the Australian region and in Antarctica. Similar 
levels of ionospheric support expected for the next 3 days due 
to continued very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun 
and current increase in geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Dec
Speed: 329 km/sec  Density:    6.7 p/cc  Temp:    19200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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