[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 December 18 issued 2335 UT on 27 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 28 10:35:39 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Dec: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Dec 29 Dec 30 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 27 December.
There are currently no sunspot regions on the visible solar disc.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next three
UT days, 28-30 December. No Earth directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. The corotating interaction
region ahead of a positive polarity coronal hole has arrived
at the end of the UT day, 27 December. The solar wind speed was
near it's nominal values of 320 Km/s up to 2000UT. During this
period, the total IMF (Bt) was steady near 4 nT and the north-south
component of IMF (Bz) ranged from +/-4 nT. At 2000UT the solar
wind speed started increasing, currently around 370 Km/s. Bt
increased to 10 nT and Bz fluctuated between +/-10 . The solar
wind is expected to enhance over the next two days due to coronal
hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11100013
Cocos Island 3 12100013
Darwin 4 12100113
Townsville 5 12110123
Learmonth 3 11100113
Alice Springs 3 11000013
Culgoora 2 11100012
Canberra 3 11000013
Launceston 3 12000113
Hobart 1 01000012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 01000002
Mawson 6 22000124
Davis 5 23111112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0001 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Dec 15 Quiet to Unsettled with possible Active periods.
29 Dec 12 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Dec 7 Mostly Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 27 December, geomagnetic conditions were at
Quiet to Unsettled levels over Australia. Unsettled conditions
were observed at the end of the UT day due to the arrival of
the corotating interaction region ahead of a positive polarity
coronal hole. For the next two UT days, 28-29 December, conditions
are expected to be at Unsettled levels with possible Active periods
due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 27 December, Minor to Moderate MUF depressions
observed at all latitudes due to very low levels of ionising
radiation from the Sun. Similar depressions are expected to persist
for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Dec -39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -32
Dec -8
Jan -9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Dec -40 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
29 Dec -40 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
30 Dec -40 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on 26 December
and is current for 27-29 Dec. Minor to Moderate MUF depressions
across the Australian region as compared to the monthly predicted
levels observed during 27 December. Sporadic E layers were seen
across the Australian region and in Antarctica. Depressed MUFs
are expected to persist for the next three days, as a consequence
of very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun and increased
geomagnetic activity due to coronal hole effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Dec
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 29100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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