[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 December 18 issued 2330 UT on 18 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 19 10:30:20 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 DECEMBER - 21 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Dec: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Dec 20 Dec 21 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 18 December.
There are currently no sunspot regions on the visible solar disc.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next three
UT days, 19-21 December. No Earth directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery up to 18/1924 UT. The solar
wind was at moderate levels on UT day 18 December due to the
effects of a recurrent negative polarity southern hemisphere
coronal hole. The solar wind speed ranged from 400 km/s to 450
km/s during the last 24 hours and is currently near 440 km/s.
During this period Btotal remained between 5 nT and 8 nT. Bz
ranged from +/-6 nT. Expect the solar wind to gradually return
to nominal levels over the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 21222221
Cocos Island 4 21112220
Darwin 4 11112221
Townsville 5 11222221
Learmonth 7 21222231
Alice Springs 5 11212221
Culgoora 5 21122221
Canberra 6 20222231
Launceston 9 22223331
Hobart 6 21222230
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Dec :
Macquarie Island 5 21022320
Mawson 12 33222342
Davis 20 43333451
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 3 0000 1022
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Dec 6 Quiet
20 Dec 6 Quiet
21 Dec 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet with isolated
cases of Unsettled conditions. Antarctica was mostly Unsettled.
Mostly Quiet conditions with isolated periods to Unsettled levels
are expected today, 19 December, and Quiet conditions for the
following two days 20-21 December.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: There were MUF depressions up to 35% over parts of the
Southern Hemisphere as compared to the monthly predicted levels
due to very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun. Similar
depressions up to 25% are expected to persist for the next three
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Dec -32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -32
Dec -8
Jan -9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Dec -35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
20 Dec -35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
21 Dec -35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 29 was issued on 17 December
and is current for 18-20 Dec. On UT day 18 December, there were
minor to moderate MUF depressions across the Australian region
as compared to the monthly predicted levels. Sporadic E layers
were seen across the Australian region and in Antarctica. Similar
conditions are expected for the next three days, as a consequence
of the continued very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Dec
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 8.3 p/cc Temp: 95800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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