[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 December 18 issued 2335 UT on 17 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 18 10:35:10 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 DECEMBER - 20 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Dec: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Dec 19 Dec 20 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 17 December.
There are currently no sunspot regions on the visible solar disc.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next three
UT days, 18-20 December. No Earth directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery up to 17/2136 UT. The solar
wind was slightly enhanced to moderate levels on UT day 17 December
shortly after 0500UT due to the effects of a recurrent negative
polarity southern hemisphere coronal hole. The solar wind speed
increased from 325 km/s to 450 km/s during the last 24 hours
and is currently near 450 km/s. During this period Btotal nearly
doubled from 6 nT to 11 nT however has returned to nearly 5 nT
several hours later. Bz ranged from +10/-5 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 11322212
Cocos Island 4 11221111
Darwin 6 11322212
Townsville 7 12322212
Learmonth 7 12222213
Alice Springs 6 22222202
Culgoora 6 11322112
Canberra 7 11322113
Launceston 8 12322213
Hobart 6 01322212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 01211011
Mawson 21 32233264
Davis 22 33333263
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0010 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Dec 6 Quiet
19 Dec 6 Quiet
20 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet with a Unsettled
conditions observed between 06-09 UT in the Australian region
on UT day 17 December. Antarctica was mostly Unsettled. Mostly
Quiet conditions with isolated periods to Unsettled levels are
expected for the next three days as there is only weak reconnection
with the Earth's magnetic field.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: There were MUF depressions up to 20% over the Southern
Hemisphere as compared to the monthly predicted levels due to
very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun. Similar depressions
are expected to persist for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Dec -32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -32
Dec -8
Jan -9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Dec -30 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
19 Dec -30 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
20 Dec -30 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 29 was issued on 17 December
and is current for 18-20 Dec. On UT day 17 December, there were
minor to moderate MUF depressions across the Australian region
as compared to the monthly predicted levels. Sporadic E layers
were seen across the Australian region and in Antarctica. Similar
conditions are expected for the next three days, as a consequence
of the continued very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Dec
Speed: 312 km/sec Density: 7.6 p/cc Temp: 10600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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