[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 December 18 issued 2334 UT on 16 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 17 10:34:35 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 DECEMBER - 19 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Dec: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Dec 18 Dec 19 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 16 December.
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the visible
solar disc. Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for
the next three UT days, 17-19 December. No Earth directed CMEs
were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day
16 December, the solar wind speed varied between 300 km/s and
335 km/s, currently around 330 km/s. During the last 24 hours,
the total IMF (Bt) reached a maximum of 7.6 nT at 16/2249 UT
and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) reached a minimum of
-4.1 nT at 16/1930 UT. The solar winds are expected to become
enhanced on UT day 17 December due to the effects of a recurrent
negative polarity southern hemisphere coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11101111
Cocos Island 1 10100110
Darwin 3 21101111
Townsville 1 10001111
Learmonth 2 20011111
Alice Springs 2 2100----
Culgoora 2 11101101
Canberra 2 11111101
Launceston 3 11111211
Hobart 2 11211100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Mawson 8 33101133
Davis 6 22211131
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled, with possible isolated Active
periods
18 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 16 December. Mainly Quiet to Unsettled levels
were observed in Antarctica. During the next UT day, 17 December,
the global geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to Unsettled
levels, with possible isolated Active periods, due to the influence
of a recurrent coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to be Quiet to Unsettled on UT day 18 December, then mainly Quiet
on UT day 19 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: On UT day 16 December, there were significant MUF depressions
over the Southern Hemisphere as compared to the monthly predicted
levels due to very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun. Similar depressions are possible on UT day 17 December as
the solar effects persist.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Dec -40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -32
Dec -8
Jan -9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Dec -30 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
18 Dec -30 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
19 Dec -30 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 28 was issued on 16 December
and is current for 17 Dec only. On UT day 16 December, there
were minor to moderate MUF depressions across the Australian
region as compared to the monthly predicted levels. Sporadic
E layers were seen across the Australian region and in Antarctica.
Similar conditions are expected for UT day, 17 December, as a
consequence of the continued very low levels of ionising radiation
from the Sun. Depressions may lessen on UT day, 18 December,
in response to possible geomagnetic activity due to an approaching
coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Dec
Speed: 330 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 20100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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