[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 December 18 issued 2330 UT on 15 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 16 10:30:20 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Dec: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 15 December.
There is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible
solar disc. Solar activity is expected to stay Very Low for the
next three UT days, 16-17 December. No Earth directed CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 15 December,
the solar wind speed varied between 300 km/s and 350 km/s, currently
around 310 km/s. During the last 24 hours, the total IMF (Bt)
fluctuated between 1 to 5 nT and the north-south component of
IMF (Bz) fluctuated between +/-3 nT. The solar winds may become
enhanced late on UT day 15 December or on UT day 16 due to the
effects of a recurrent negative polarity southern hemisphere
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Dec : A K
Australian Region 1 11101010
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 2 11101011
Townsville 1 11101010
Learmonth 2 11112000
Alice Springs 1 11100001
Culgoora 1 11100010
Gingin 1 11011000
Canberra 1 11100000
Launceston 2 11101110
Hobart 1 11101010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 11 44321111
Mawson 6 22111132
Davis 8 24222121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 1 0001 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Dec 10 Unsettled to Active
17 Dec 8 Unsettled to Active
18 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 15 December. Mainly Quiet to Unsettled levels
were observed in Antarctica, with an isolated Active period.
During the next UT day, 16 December, the global geomagnetic activity
is expected to increase to Unsettled to Active levels due to
the influence of a recurrent coronal hole. Unsettled conditions,
with possible isolated Active periods, are expected on UT day
17 December, returning to Quiet conditions on UT day 18 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 15 December, there were significant MUF depressions
over the Southern Hemisphere as compared to the monthly predicted
levels due to very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun. Similar depressions are possible on UT day 16 December as
the solar effects persist.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Dec -50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -32
Dec -8
Jan -9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Dec -40 Depressed 15 to 35%/near predicted monthly values
17 Dec -30 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
18 Dec -30 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 15 December
and is current for 16 Dec only. On UT day 15 December, there
were minor to moderate MUF depressions across the Australian
region as compared to the monthly predicted levels, with some
severe MUF depressions during the local night in the Niue Island,
Northern Australian, and Central Australian regions. Sporadic
E layers were seen across the Australian region and in Antarctica.
Similar conditions are expected for UT day, 16 December, as a
consequence of the continued very low levels of ionising radiation
from the Sun. Depressions may lessen on UT day, 17 December,
in response to possible geomagnetic activity due to an approaching
coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Dec
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 33900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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