[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 December 18 issued 2330 UT on 07 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 8 10:30:18 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Dec:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Dec             09 Dec             10 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 7 December. 
There is one sunspot group (AR2729, currently at S05W61) on the 
solar disc visible from the Earth. Solar activity is expected 
to stay Very Low for the next three UT days, 8-10 December. No 
Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. The corotating interaction region has arrived at the 
end of the previous UT day, 6 December. On UT day 7 December 
the solar wind speed was near its nominal values up to 0415 UT, 
then it increased and at 1805 UT reached its peak value of 530 
km/s; currently it is at 470 km/s. Through this period, the total 
IMF (Bt) varied between 2 nT and 12 nT and the north-south component 
of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between -10 and +6 nT without prolonged 
periods with negative Bz. The solar wind speed is expected to 
stay at enhanced levels during the next 3 UT days, 8-10 December, 
due to high-speed solar wind streams associated with the large 
recurrent coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 07 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22322222
      Cocos Island         7   213122--
      Darwin               7   223221--
      Townsville           8   22322222
      Learmonth            8   22322222
      Alice Springs        7   223221--
      Culgoora             7   21321222
      Gingin               8   223222--
      Canberra             5   11321111
      Launceston          10   22332232
      Hobart               8   22322222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     8   112332--
      Casey               47   457443--
      Mawson              19   243443--
      Davis               26   23443346

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Dec : 
      Darwin              12   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1121 2001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
10 Dec     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on UT day 7 December. Quiet to major 
storm levels were observed in Antarctica. During the next two 
UT days, 8-9 December, due to coronal hole effects the global 
geomagnetic activity is expected to vary mostly from quiet to 
unsettled levels with possible active periods.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
09 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
10 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Due to very low levels of ionising radiation from the 
Sun, MUF depressions of 15% were observed on UT day 7 December 
in Southern hemisphere. Stronger depressions are possible on 
8-10 December as a consequence of the continued very low levels 
of ionising radiation from the Sun and recent increase in geomagnetic 
activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Dec   -24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:    
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -32
Dec      -8
Jan      -9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Dec   -30    Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
09 Dec   -30    Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
10 Dec   -30    Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 23 was issued on 7 December 
and is current for 8-9 Dec. Due to very low levels of ionising 
radiation from the Sun, MUF depressions of 15% were observed 
across the Australian region on UT day 7 December. Sporadic E 
layers were seen across the Australian region. Stronger depressions 
are possible on 8-10 December as a consequence of the continued 
very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun and recent 
increase in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Dec
Speed: 393 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    40600 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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