[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 December 18 issued 2330 UT on 06 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 7 10:30:18 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 DECEMBER - 09 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Dec:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Dec             08 Dec             09 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 6 December. 
There is one sunspot group (AR2729, currently at S05W48) on the 
solar disc visible from the Earth. Solar activity is expected 
to stay Very Low for the next three UT days, 7-9 December. No 
Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. On UT day 6 December the solar wind speed was mostly 
moderate, varying in the range 380-440 km/s, currently at 390 
km/s. Through this period, the total IMF (Bt) stayed between 
2 nT and 4 nT and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) was mostly 
negative, fluctuating between +2/-3 nT. At 1630 UT the plasma 
density started increasing, possibly, due to arrival of the corotating 
interaction region associated with the recurrent coronal hole. 
On 7 December the solar wind speed is expected to increase up 
to 550-600 km/s due to arrival of high-speed solar wind streams.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11112101
      Cocos Island         1   11101000
      Darwin               3   11012102
      Townsville           4   11122112
      Learmonth            4   22112111
      Alice Springs        2   11012002
      Culgoora             2   1111200-
      Gingin               4   22112011
      Canberra             2   11112001
      Launceston           4   12112112
      Hobart               3   12112101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     3   11113000
      Casey               13   44332112
      Mawson              13   44222223
      Davis               10   33322231

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   2100 1102     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Dec    14    Unsettled to Active
08 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 6 December. Quiet to active levels were observed 
in Antarctica. Due to coronal hole effects, the global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to vary mostly from quiet to unsettled levels 
with possible active periods during the next three UT days, 7-9 
December. The highest levels of geomagnetic activity are expected 
for 7 December due to arrival of the corotating interaction region 
and high speed solar wind streams associated with the recurrent 
coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
08 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
09 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Due to very low levels of ionising radiation from the 
Sun, MUF depressions of 15% were observed on UT day 6 December 
in Southern hemisphere. Similar conditions are expected for UT 
day 7 December due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation 
from the Sun. Stronger depressions are possible on 8-9 December 
as a consequence of the predicted increase in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Dec   -36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -32
Dec      -8
Jan      -9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Dec   -30    Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
08 Dec   -35    Depressed 15 to 35%/near predicted monthly values
09 Dec   -35    Depressed 15 to 35%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Due to very low levels of ionising radiation from the 
Sun, MUF depressions of 15% were observed across the Australian 
region on UT day 6 December. Sporadic E layers were seen across 
the Australian region. Similar levels of MUF depressions in the 
Australian region are expected to continue on UT day 7 December. 
Stronger depressions are possible on 8-9 December as a consequence 
of the predicted increase in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Dec
Speed: 453 km/sec  Density:    6.3 p/cc  Temp:   136000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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