[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 December 18 issued 2330 UT on 08 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 9 10:30:18 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Dec:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Dec             10 Dec             11 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 8 December. 
There is one sunspot group (AR2729, currently at S06W79) on the 
solar disc visible from the Earth. Solar activity is expected 
to stay Very Low for the next three UT days, 9-11 December. No 
Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. On UT day 8 December, the solar wind speed was near 
its moderate levels of 550 km/s. This is due to high-speed solar 
wind streams associated with a large recurrent coronal hole. 
During the last 24 hours, the total IMF (Bt) varied between 3 
nT and 8 nT and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated 
between -5 and +5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to stay 
at these moderately enhanced levels during the next 2 UT days, 
9-11 December, as the effects of the coronal hole persist.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 08 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22322322
      Cocos Island         5   112122--
      Darwin               9   223123--
      Townsville           8   12322322
      Learmonth            9   22322322
      Alice Springs        9   223123--
      Culgoora             8   12322322
      Gingin               9   223123--
      Canberra             5   12311201
      Launceston          10   23322322
      Hobart               9   22322322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Dec :
      Macquarie Island    14   223334--
      Casey               30   446432--
      Mawson              17   334333--
      Davis               21   33543432

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   1222 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled
10 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Dec     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on UT day 8 December. Quiet to major 
storm levels were observed in Antarctica. This was in response 
to high-speed solar wind streams associated with a large recurrent 
coronal hole. During the next two UT days, 9-10 December, mostly 
from quiet and at times unsettled levels are expected as the 
effects of the coronal hole persist.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: A combination of very low levels of ionising radiation 
from the Sun and geomagnetic disturbance associated with the 
coronal hole caused significant MUF depressions over the high 
latitude Southern Hemisphere regions compared to the monthly 
predicted levels on UT day 8 December. Similar depressions are 
possible on 9-10 December as the solar and geomagnetic effects 
persist.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Dec   -35

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -32
Dec      -8
Jan      -9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Dec   -40    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
10 Dec   -35    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
11 Dec   -30    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 23 was issued on 7 December 
and is current for 8-9 Dec. A combination of very low levels 
of ionising radiation from the Sun and geomagnetic disturbance 
associated with the coronal hole caused significant MUF depressions 
across the Australian region compared to the monthly predicted 
levels on UT day 8 December. Sporadic E layers were seen across 
the Australian region. Depressions are expected to continue on 
9-10 December as a consequence of the continued very low levels 
of ionising radiation from the Sun and geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Dec
Speed: 462 km/sec  Density:   10.0 p/cc  Temp:   171000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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