[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 August 18 issued 2330 UT on 27 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 28 09:30:21 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 28 AUGUST - 30 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Aug: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Aug 29 Aug 30 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 27 Aug. There are currently
two numbered regions on the visible disk, region 2719 (S08W63)
and region 2720 (N08W64), which were quiet over the last 2 days.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery
up to 27/1748 UT. During the last UT day, 27 Aug, the solar wind
speed (Vsw) varied in the range from 530 to 630 km/s and IMF
Bt was in the range 4-7 nT. The Bz component of IMF was mostly
negative, varying from -6 to +4 nT. The most significant period
with negative Bz and elevated solar wind speed was observed from
1600 UT to 1815 UT. Solar activity is expected to remain at Very
Low levels for the next 3 UT days. Solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated over the next 24 hours due to coronal hole
effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 27 Aug : A K
Australian Region 16 23343432
Cocos Island 12 12223441
Darwin 14 13243432
Townsville 13 23243331
Learmonth 16 23243442
Alice Springs 14 13243431
Culgoora 17 23343424
Gingin 19 23243542
Canberra 18 23353432
Launceston 24 33454442
Hobart 18 23353432
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Aug :
Macquarie Island 44 22566652
Casey 46 34233582
Mawson 69 34453777
Davis 114 23393876
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 34
Planetary 70 5675 6653
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Aug 14 Unsettled to Active
29 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Active conditions were observed over
the Australian region for the UT day 27 Aug. An isolated Minor
Storm period occurred in the Southern Australian region. Antarctic
region experienced Unsettled to Severe Storm conditions during
the last 24 hours. Unsettled to Active global geomagnetic conditions
are expected for 28 Aug. Mostly Quiet global geomagnetic conditions
are expected for 29-30 Aug with possible Unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Normal Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Normal Normal Fair-normal
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions were observed over the last 24
hours for low to mid latitudes with depressed MUFs for northern
hemisphere to notable enhancements in the southern hemisphere.
Occasional disturbed ionospheric support at some mid latitudes
and poor ionospheric support at high latitudes. For 28 Aug mildly
depressed MUFs are expected for mid and high latitudes for southern
hemisphere and disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes.
Ionospheric recovery is expected by 30 Aug with MUFs near predicted
monthly values for low to mid latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Aug -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 6
Aug -3
Sep -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Aug -10 Near predicted monthly values
29 Aug -10 Near predicted monthly values
30 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values across
the Aus/NZ regions for 27 Aug. Poor ionospheric support for Antarctic
regions due to elevated geomagnetic activity. Incidents of sporadic-E
were observed across Australia. Mildly depressed MUFs for Southern
AUS/NZ regions and continued periods of disturbed ionospheric
support for Antarctic regions are expected for 28-29 Aug due
to recent geomagnetic activity. MUFs are expected to return to
near predicted monthly values by 30 Aug for all regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Aug
Speed: 437 km/sec Density: 12.0 p/cc Temp: 232000 K Bz: -10 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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