[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 August 18 issued 2352 UT on 26 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 27 09:52:16 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 27 AUGUST - 29 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Aug: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 26Aug. There are currently
two regions on the visible disk, region 2719 (S08W50) and region
2720 (N08W51) which were quiet over the last 24 hours. There
were no earth directed CME's observed in available imagery. The
solar wind speed (Vsw) was approx 400km/s at 00UT and gradually
declined to ~375km/s at 07UT. Vsw then began to gradually increase
to be ~560km/s at the time of this report. Bz which is the north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was predominantly
southward for most of the UT day. Between 00UT-07UT saw sustained
southward Bz at -15nT and between 08UT-12UT Bz was approx -13nT.
>From 12UT onwards Bz fluctuated between +/-15nT before it began
to decline from 16UT onwards to be +/-3nT at the time of this
report. This behaviour of the IMF is due to the slow moving CME
from 20Aug. Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over
the next 12-24 hours and is expected to decline back towards
ambient levels by 28-29Aug. Solar activity is expected to remain
at Very Low levels for the next 3 days with the slight chance
of a C-class flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Aug: Quiet to Severe
Storm Levels
Estimated Indices 26 Aug : A K
Australian Region 48 33764642
Darwin 27 33554531
Townsville 35 33654632
Learmonth 44 337-4642
Alice Springs 36 33654641
Culgoora 36 23753531
Gingin 45 33664653
Canberra 36 23753532
Launceston 70 34874642
Hobart 69 24874642
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Aug :
Macquarie Island 79 44876643
Casey 17 32344432
Mawson 169 89465886
Davis 73 66344776
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 46
Planetary 78
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 9 2122 2234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Aug 12 Unsettled with possible Active periods
28 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 26 August and
is current for 26-27 Aug. Quiet conditions initially for 26Aug
which quickly evolved into Active to Severe Storm levels due
to the influence of the slow moving CME from 20Aug which resulted
into sustained southward Bz conditions for most of the UT day.
Across the AUS/NZ region Severe storm levels observed at high
latitudes, Active to Major Storm levels for mid latitudes and
Active to Minor Storm conditions for Low latitudes. Unsettled
conditions expected for 27Aug with possible Active periods. Mostly
Quiet conditions expected for 28Aug-29Aug with possible Unsettled
periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal Normal-fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
28 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed over the last 24 hours
for low to mid latitudes with depressed MUFs for northern hemisphere
to notable enhancements in the southern hemisphere. Occasional
disturbed ionospheric support at some mid latitudes and poor
ionospheric support at high latitudes. Depressed MUFs are expected
27-28AUg for mid latitudes and disturbed ionospheric support
for high latitudes. Ionospheric recovery expected by 29Aug with
MUFs near predicted monthly values for low to mid latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Aug 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 120% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 6
Aug -3
Sep -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Aug -10 Near predicted monthly values
28 Aug -10 Near predicted monthly values
29 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions
over the last 24 hours due to positive phase storm conditions
from recent geomagnetic activity. Mildly depressed MUFs for Southern
AUS/NZ regions with occasional disturbed ionospheric support.
Poor ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Depressed MUFs
for Northern and Southern AUS/NZ regions and continued periods
of disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions expected
for 27Aug-28Aug due to recent geomagnetic activity. MUFs expected
to begin to return to near predicted monthly values by 29AUg
for all regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Aug
Speed: 409 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 39100 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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