[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 August 18 issued 2330 UT on 10 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 11 09:30:24 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 11 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Aug: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 10 August,
with no solar flares. For the next 3 UT days, 11-13 August, solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed during the UT day, 10 August, via LASCO C2
imagery up to 10/1536 UT. The solar wind speed during the last
24 hours varied in the range 340-390 km/s. The IMF Bt during
the last 24 hours was mostly steady, varying between 3 nT and
6 nT; the Bz component of IMF fluctuated between -3 nT and 5
nT. The outlook for today (11 August) is for the solar wind speed
to remain mostly at its nominal levels. At the end of the UT
day 11 August, the solar wind is expected to start increasing
in response to an approaching recurrent equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11100101
Cocos Island 1 01110100
Darwin 2 11101101
Townsville 3 11111111
Learmonth 2 12110101
Alice Springs 1 01100101
Culgoora 1 11100101
Gingin 1 00100101
Canberra 1 11000001
Launceston 1 11100101
Hobart 0 11000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Aug :
Casey 5 22310111
Mawson 15 33101116
Davis 6 12212113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1122 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Aug 9 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Aug 12 Unsettled
13 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day 10 August. The Antarctic
region experienced some minor unsettled conditions during the
last 24 hours. The outlook for today (UT day 11 August) is for
the global magnetic activity to be mostly at quiet levels. Expect
some unsettled conditions at the end of the UT day 11 August
associated with a possible CIR from a recurrent equatorial coronal
hole. Mostly unsettled conditions with possible isolated active
levels are expected for UT day 12 August as the high speed streams
(HSS) from the coronal hole begin to impact the Earth.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
10 August, with periods of minor MUF depression over the dayside
equatorial regions. Similar HF conditions are expected for UT
day 11 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Aug 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 6
Aug -3
Sep -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Aug 5 Near predicted monthly values
12 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
13 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 10 Aug, depressed MUFs were observed over
the Northern Australian region during local day. Moderately enhanced
MUFs were observed over Australasia during local night. The three
day outlook (UT days 11-13 Aug) is for MUFs to trend mostly near
monthly predicted levels. MUFs are expected to be strongest on
UT day 12 August, but still near monthly predicted levels. MUF
enhancements are expected at the onset of geomagnetic disturbance
during this time of the year.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Aug
Speed: 388 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 142000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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