[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 August 18 issued 2330 UT on 11 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 12 09:30:24 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 11 August,
with no solar flares. For the next 3 UT days, 12-14 August, solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed during the UT day, 11 August, via LASCO C2
imagery up to 11/1548 UT. The solar wind speed during the last
24 hours increased from 375 km/s to 425 km/s. The IMF Bt during
the last 24 hours varied between 5 nT and 10 nT; the Bz component
of IMF fluctuated between -6 nT and 7 nT, with no prolonged period
of southward Bz. The outlook for UT day today (12 August) is
for the solar wind speed to continue to increase and may reach
to moderate levels. This is in response to a recurrent equatorial
coronal hole, which now appears to be at a geoeffective location.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Aug : A K
Australian Region 9 12322323
Darwin 9 11411124
Townsville 9 12322323
Learmonth 11 22223324
Alice Springs 9 123223--
Culgoora 8 12222323
Gingin 10 123233--
Canberra 3 01211112
Launceston 9 12223323
Hobart 7 11213322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Aug :
Casey 9 232223--
Mawson 11 332133--
Davis 18 23323216
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2100 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels
across the Australian region during the UT day 11 August. The
Antarctic region experienced a short-lived active geomagnetic
period during the last 24 hours. The outlook for today (UT day
12 August) is for the global magnetic activity to be mostly at
quiet to unsettled levels. The observed and anticipated disturbed
conditions are due to a recurrent equatorial coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
11 August, with periods of minor MUF depression over the dayside
equatorial regions. Similar HF conditions are expected for UT
day 12 August, with some periods of moderate MUF depression in
the high latitude regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Aug 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available .
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 6
Aug -3
Sep -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
13 Aug -3 Near predicted monthly values
14 Aug -3 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 11 Aug, depressed MUFs were observed over
the Northern Australian region during local day. Moderately enhanced
MUFs were observed over Australasia during local night. The three
day outlook (UT days 12-14 Aug) is for MUFs to trend mostly near
monthly predicted levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Aug
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 135000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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