[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 August 18 issued 2330 UT on 09 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 10 09:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 10 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Aug: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 09 August,
with no solar flares. For the next 3 UT days, 10-12 August, solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed during the UT day, 09 August, via LASCO C2
imagery up to 09/1636 UT. The solar wind speed during the last
24 hours showed a gradual decrease from 425 km/s to 330 km/s,
in response to the waning effects of a small positive polarity
equatorial coronal hole. The IMF Bt during the last 24 hours
were mostly steady near 3 nT; the Bz component of IMF fluctuated
between -3 nT and 3 nT. The outlook for today (10 August) is
for the solar wind speed to remain mostly at its nominal levels.
>From UT 11 August, the solar wind is expected to start to increase
in response to an approaching negative polarity equatorial coronal
hole. The STEREO A satellite experienced solar winds of near
500 km/s associated with this coronal hole, similar solar wind
strengths are expected at Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11111011
Cocos Island 1 01100010
Darwin 2 11111011
Townsville 3 11112012
Learmonth 2 11111010
Alice Springs 2 01211010
Culgoora 2 11111001
Gingin 2 10112010
Canberra 2 00112001
Launceston 3 11122010
Hobart 1 00112000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 00122000
Casey 5 22221111
Mawson 11 33231133
Davis 14 13331153
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1111 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Aug 7 Quiet
11 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day 09 August. The Antarctic
region experienced some minor unsettled conditions during the
last 24 hours. The outlook for today (UT day 10 August) is for
the magnetic activity to be mostly at quiet levels. Expect some
unsettled conditions on UT day 11 August associated with a possible
CIR from an approaching negative polarity equatorial coronal
hole. Geomagnetic conditions may reach active levels on UT day
12 August as the high speed streams (HSS) from the coronal hole
begin to impact earth.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
11 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
12 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
09 August, with periods of minor MUF depression over the dayside
equatorial regions. Similar HF conditions are expected for UT
today (10 August).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Aug 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 6
Aug -3
Sep -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Aug 4 Near predicted monthly values
11 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
12 Aug -3 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 09 Aug, depressed MUFs were observed over
the Northern Australian region around midday. At other times,
MUFs over Australasia were mostly near the monthly predicted
values. Incidence of sporadic-E were observed at some low latitude
Australian stations. The two day outlook (UT day 10-11 Aug) is
for MUFs to trend mostly near monthly predicted levels. MUFs
are expected to be strongest on UT day 11 August, but still near
monthly predicted levels. Improvement in MUFs are expected at
the onset of geomagnetic disturbance during this time of the
year.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Aug
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 185000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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