[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 August 18 issued 2330 UT on 04 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 5 09:30:24 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 04 August. There
is no sunspot on the solar disk visible from the Earthside. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 imagery up to 04/1800
and in C3 imagery up to 04/1754 UT. During the UT day 04 August,
the solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from around 390
km/s to 340 km/s. The total IMF Bt, through this day, varied
mostly between 1 and 5 nT. The Bz component of IMF varied mostly
between -4 and +2.5 nT during the first four hours of the UT
day and stayed mostly close to the normal value during the rest
of the day. The particle density in the solar wind at L1 varied
mostly between 5 ppcc and 10 ppcc on this day. Very Low levels
of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 05
to 07 August. The solar wind is expected to show some enhancements
on 05 August due to the effect of a small negative polarity coronal
hole. Due to the effect of another coronal hole with a positive
polarity, solar wind parameters may stay enhanced on 06 and 07
August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11110000
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 2 21110001
Townsville 2 11110011
Learmonth 1 11110000
Alice Springs 1 11010001
Culgoora 1 11020000
Gingin 1 11110000
Canberra 1 11020000
Launceston 2 12120000
Hobart 1 11020000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00020000
Casey 3 12210110
Mawson 12 44331112
Davis 8 23331030
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1113 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Aug 12 Quiet to Unsettled, some Active periods possible
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region on UT day 04 August. Quiet to Unsettled levels
of global geomagnetic activity are expected on UT day 05 August
due to the effect of a small negative polarity coronal hole.
Enhancement in the global geomagnetic activity to Unsettled levels
on UT days 06 and 07 August with the possibility of some Active
periods on 07 August are expected due the effect of another coronal
hole that has a positive polarity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
04 August, with periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements in
some mid- to high-latitude regions and also periods of minor
MUF depressions in some low- to mid-latitude regions. Minor MUF
depressions and minor degradations in HF conditions are possible
on UT days 05 to 07 August due to the expected slight rise in
geomagnetic activity during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Aug 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 6
Aug -3
Sep -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Aug 5 Near predicted monthly values
06 Aug 2 Near predicted monthly values
07 Aug 2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ
regions on UT day 04 August, with periods of minor to mild MUF
enhancements in Southern parts of the region and also periods
of minor MUF depressions in the Northern areas. Minor MUF depressions
and minor degradations in HF conditions are possible in this
region on UT days 05 to 07 August due to the expected slight
rise in geomagnetic activity during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Aug
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 8.4 p/cc Temp: 37800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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