[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 August 18 issued 2330 UT on 05 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 6 09:30:24 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 06 AUGUST - 08 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Aug: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 05 August. There
is no sunspot on the solar disk visible from the Earthside. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 imagery up to 05/1648
and in C3 imagery up to 05/1654 UT. During the UT day 05 August,
the solar wind speed showed variations between around 330 km/s
and 390 km/s. The total IMF Bt, through this day, varied mostly
between 1.5 and 6 nT. The Bz component of IMF varied mostly between
-6 and +5 nT by 1400 UT and then stayed close to the normal value
on the positive side for the remainder of the UT day. The particle
density in the solar wind at L1 varied mostly between 4 ppcc
and 10 ppcc on this day. Very Low levels of solar activity are
expected for the next three UT days, 06 to 08 August. The solar
wind is expected to show some enhancements on 06 August due to
the effect of a small negative polarity coronal hole. Due to
the effect of another coronal hole with a positive polarity,
solar wind parameters may stay enhanced on 07 and 08 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 01121000
Cocos Island 1 01110000
Darwin 2 02121000
Townsville 3 12121001
Learmonth 2 12110100
Alice Springs 1 01120000
Culgoora 2 12121000
Gingin 2 11110101
Canberra 1 01011000
Launceston 2 01121100
Hobart 2 01021100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 00021000
Casey 5 13320110
Mawson 7 22112114
Davis 5 13211102
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 3311 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled, some Active periods possible
08 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled, some Active periods possible
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region on UT day 05 August. Quiet to Unsettled levels
of global geomagnetic activity are expected on UT day 06 August
due to the effect of a small negative polarity coronal hole.
Enhancement in the global geomagnetic activity to Unsettled levels
with the possibility of some Active periods may be expected on
UT days 07 and 08 August due the effect of another coronal hole
that has a positive polarity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
05 August, with periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements. Periods
of minor MUF depressions in some low- to mid-latitude regions
were also recorded. Minor MUF depressions and minor degradations
in HF conditions are possible for the next three UT days (06
to 08 August) due to the expected slight rise in geomagnetic
activity during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Aug 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 6
Aug -3
Sep -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Aug 2 Near predicted monthly values
07 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
08 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ
regions on UT day 05 August, with periods of minor to mild MUF
enhancements throughout the region and also periods of minor
MUF depressions in the Northern some areas. Minor MUF depressions
and minor degradations in HF conditions are possible in this
region for the next three UT days (05 to 07 August) due to the
expected slight rise in geomagnetic activity during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Aug
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 30300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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