[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 August 18 issued 2330 UT on 03 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 4 09:30:24 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 04 AUGUST - 06 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Aug: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 03 August. Sunspot
2717 has decayed leaving no sunspot on the solar disk visible
from the Earthside. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in LASCO
C2 imagery up to 03/1424 and in C3 imagery up to 03/1430 UT.
During the UT day 03 August, the solar wind speed varied between
around 360 km/s and 410 km/s. The total IMF Bt, through this
day, varied mostly between 1.5 and 6 nT and the Bz component
of IMF varied mostly between -3 and +4 nT. The particle density
in the solar wind at L1 varied mostly between 5 ppcc and 15 ppcc
on this day. Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for
the next three UT days, 04 to 06 August. The solar wind is expected
to remain mostly at nominal levels on 04 August with the possibility
of some enhancements on 05 and 06 August due to the effect of
a coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 11122100
Cocos Island 3 11122100
Darwin 4 22122100
Townsville 4 21122101
Learmonth 4 21122201
Alice Springs 3 11122100
Culgoora 3 21122100
Gingin 3 01122111
Canberra 2 10022100
Launceston 4 01132111
Hobart 3 01132100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Aug :
Macquarie Island 11 00161100
Casey 7 22232211
Mawson 7 23233100
Davis 6 13322100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 3221 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Aug 5 Quiet
05 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region on UT day 03 August. Mainly Quiet levels of
global geomagnetic activity are expected on UT day 04 August.
Geomagnetic activity may rise to unsettled levels on 05 and 06
August due to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream from
a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal Fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
03 August, with periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements in
mid to high latitude regions and also periods of minor MUF depressions
in some low to mid latitude regions. Mostly near predicted monthly
MUF values and normal HF conditions are expected for the next
two UT days (04 to 05 August). Minor MUF depressions and minor
degradations in HF conditions are possible on 06 August due to
the expected slight rise in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Aug 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 6
Aug -3
Sep -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Aug 4 Near predicted monthly values
05 Aug 6 Near predicted monthly values
06 Aug 4 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ
regions on UT day 03 August, with periods of minor to mild MUF
enhancements in Southern parts of the region and also periods
of minor MUF depressions in the Northern areas. Mostly near predicted
monthly MUF values and normal HF conditions are expected in the
Aus/NZ regions for the next two UT days (04 to 05 August). Minor
MUF depressions and minor degradations in HF conditions are possible
in this region on 06 August due to the expected slight rise in
geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Aug
Speed: 378 km/sec Density: 7.6 p/cc Temp: 24100 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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