[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 August 18 issued 2330 UT on 02 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 3 09:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 03 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Aug: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 02 August. There
is one sunspot (2717) on the solar disk visible from the Earthside.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 imagery up to
02/1612 and in C3 imagery up to 02/1606 UT. However, a CME was
seen leaving the north-west limb of the Sun in the LASCO C2 images
from 02/1000 UT, in LASCO C3 images from 02/1242 UT and in the
Stereo A C2 difference images from 02/1009 UT. This is a far-side
event and is not expected to have any geo-effective component.
During the UT day 01 August, the solar wind speed varied between
around 350 km/s and 390 km/s. The total IMF Bt, through this
day, varied mostly between 1 and 9 nT and the Bz component of
IMF varied between -3 and +6 nT. The particle density in the
solar wind at L1 varied between 4 ppcc and 28 ppcc on this day,
staying below 10 ppcc for most periods of the day. Very Low levels
of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 03
to 05 August. The solar wind is expected to remain mostly at
nominal levels on 03 and 04 August with the possibility of some
enhancements on 05 August due to the effect of a positive polarity
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 22112001
Cocos Island 3 2211100-
Darwin 5 3221200-
Townsville 7 33212112
Learmonth 5 3221200-
Alice Springs 4 32112000
Culgoora 4 22112002
Gingin 2 2210100-
Canberra 2 2210100-
Launceston 4 23102000
Hobart 2 22101000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 210010--
Casey 7 3331100-
Mawson 8 33311022
Davis 7 23321102
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2001 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Aug 5 Quiet
04 Aug 5 Quiet
05 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region on UT day 02 August. Mainly Quiet levels of
global geomagnetic activity are expected on UT days 03 to 04
August. Geomagnetic activity may rise to unsettled levels on
05 August due to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream
from a positive polarity coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
02 August, with periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements. Periods
of minor MUF depressions were also observed in some mid-latitude
regions. Mostly near predicted monthly MUF values and normal
HF conditions are expected for the next three UT days (03 to
05 August).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Aug 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 6
Aug -3
Sep -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Aug 6 Near predicted monthly values
04 Aug 6 Near predicted monthly values
05 Aug 4 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ
regions on UT day 02 August, with periods of minor to mild MUF
enhancements in most parts of the regions and also periods of
minor MUF depressions in the Northern areas. Mostly near predicted
monthly MUF values and normal HF conditions are expected in the
Aus/NZ regions for the next three UT days (03 to 05 August).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Aug
Speed: 373 km/sec Density: 8.6 p/cc Temp: 47000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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