[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 April 18 issued 2330 UT on 26 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 27 09:30:26 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 27 APRIL - 29 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Apr:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Apr             28 Apr             29 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels today (UT day 
26 April). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
imagery during the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed gradually 
increased from 340 km/s to 390 km/s through the UT day today. 
This increase in solar wind speed may be attributed to the expected 
weak effect of a positive polarity polar coronal hole (CH91+). 
The IMF Bt varied mostly between 1 and 6 nT and the Bz component 
of IMF fluctuated between +4/-3 nT today. Solar winds may show 
slight further rise or stay at the current levels on 27 April 
due to the expected continued weak effect of the coronal hole 
(CH91+). Very Low levels of solar flare activity are expected 
for the next three UT days, 27-29 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110001
      Cocos Island         4   3-110200
      Darwin               2   11110101
      Townsville           3   11121011
      Learmonth            1   11110000
      Alice Springs        1   11110000
      Culgoora             2   11111001
      Gingin               1   10110000
      Canberra             1   01010001
      Launceston           2   11121001
      Hobart               2   11021000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     2   10020200
      Casey                3   22210100
      Mawson               4   32210011

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   2221 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Apr    10    Mainly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods 
                possible
28 Apr     5    Quiet
29 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian 
region during the UT day 26 April. Geomagnetic conditions are 
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled on 27 April with the 
possibility of isolated active periods on this day due to the 
effect of a positive polarity coronal hole (CH91+). Mostly quiet 
geomagnetic conditions may be expected on 28 and 29 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values with 
periods of minor to moderate depressions in some low latitude 
areas on UT day 26 April. Periods of minor to moderate MUF enhancements 
were recorded in some mid- and high-latitude areas on this day. 
Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions 
may be expected on 27 April. HF conditions may be expected to 
be mostly at normal levels on 28 and 29 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Apr     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      2
Apr      2
May      1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Apr     4    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
28 Apr     6    Near predicted monthly values
29 Apr     6    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values over 
most of the Aus/NZ region with periods of minor to moderate depressions 
in the northern areas on UT day 26 April. Periods of minor to 
moderate MUF enhancements were recorded in some southern areas 
on this day. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations 
in HF conditions in the Aus/NZ region may be expected on 27 April. 
HF conditions may be expected to be mostly at normal levels in 
the region on 28 and 29 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Apr
Speed: 339 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    50100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list