[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 April 18 issued 2330 UT on 25 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 26 09:30:27 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 26 APRIL - 28 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Apr:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Apr             27 Apr             28 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 25 April. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available imagery 
during the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed varied between 
310 km/s and 360 km/s through the UT day 25 April. The IMF Bt 
varied mostly between 2 and 4 nT and the Bz component of IMF 
fluctuated between +2.5/-3 nT. Solar winds are expected to show 
some rise on 26 and 27 April due to a weak effect of a positive 
polarity north polar coronal hole (CH91+). Very Low levels of 
solar flare activity are expected for the next three UT days, 
26-28 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 25 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100000
      Cocos Island         0   0100000-
      Darwin               1   1110000-
      Townsville           2   11201001
      Learmonth            1   1110100-
      Alice Springs        1   11100000
      Culgoora             1   11100001
      Gingin               1   1110000-
      Canberra             0   0110000-
      Launceston           2   12211000
      Hobart               1   11110000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     1   011100--
      Casey                5   2321110-
      Mawson              13   43310105

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1010 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Apr     8    Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods 
                possible
27 Apr    10    Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods 
                possible
28 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian 
region during the UT day 25 April. Geomagnetic conditions are 
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled on 26 and 27 April with 
the possibility of isolated active periods on both these days 
due to the effect of a positive polarity coronal hole (CH91+). 
Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions may be expected on 28 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
27 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values with 
periods of minor depressions in some low-latitude areas on UT 
day 25 April. Periods of minor MUF enhancements were recorded 
in some mid- and high-latitude areas on this day. Minor to moderate 
MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions may be expected 
on 26 and 27 April. HF conditions may be expected to return to 
normal levels on 28 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Apr     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      2
Apr      2
May      1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Apr     4    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
27 Apr     4    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
28 Apr     6    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values over 
most of the Aus/NZ region with periods of minor depressions in 
the northern areas on UT day 25 April. Periods of minor MUF enhancements 
were recorded in some southern areas on this day. Minor to moderate 
MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions in the Aus/NZ 
region may be expected on 26 and 27 April. HF conditions may 
be expected to return to normal levels in the region on 28 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Apr
Speed: 374 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:   150000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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