[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 April 18 issued 2330 UT on 24 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 25 09:30:25 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 25 APRIL - 27 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Apr:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Apr             26 Apr             27 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               73/9               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 24 April. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available imagery 
during the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed varied between 
370 km/s and 430 km/s through the UT day 24 April. The IMF Bt 
varied mostly between 3 and 5 nT and the Bz component of IMF 
fluctuated between +4/-5 nT. Solar winds are expected to continue 
to further decline until late on 25 April or probably until early 
on 26 April and then start rising due to the effect of a positive 
polarity north polar coronal hole (CH91+). Very Low levels of 
solar flare activity are expected for the next three UT days, 
25-27 April, with a slight chance of C-class activity, more likely 
from region 2706.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   00101111
      Cocos Island         1   10101110
      Darwin               2   01111101
      Townsville           3   01111211
      Learmonth            1   01001111
      Alice Springs        1   00101111
      Culgoora             2   00102111
      Gingin               2   00001122
      Canberra             1   00002110
      Launceston           3   01102211
      Hobart               2   00002210    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     1   00102100
      Casey                6   13201222
      Mawson              29   31222275

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              4   2200 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Apr     5    Quiet
26 Apr    10    Quiet to unsettled, some active periods possible
27 Apr    12    Mostly unsettled, some active periods possible

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian 
region during the UT day, 24 April. Conditions are expected to 
be mainly quiet on 25 April. Due to the effect of a positive 
polarity coronal hole (CH91+) solar winds may become enhanced 
late on UT day 25 April or early on 26 April. This may result 
in unsettled conditions with the possibility of some active periods 
on 26 and 27 April. Mostly quiet conditions may be expected on 
25 April.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
27 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values with 
periods of minor depressions as well as enhancements in low- 
and mid-latitude areas on UT day 24 April. Periods of minor MUF 
enhancements were also recorded in some mid- to high-latitude 
areas on this day. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected 
on 25 April. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations 
in HF conditions are expected on 26 and 27 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Apr     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      2
Apr      2
May      1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Apr     5    Near predicted monthly values
26 Apr     2    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
27 Apr     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values over 
most of the Aus/NZ region with periods of minor depressions as 
well as enhancements in the northern areas on UT day 24 April. 
Periods of minor MUF enhancements were also recorded in some 
southern areas on this day. Mostly normal HF conditions may be 
expected in the Aus/NZ region on 25 April. Minor to moderate 
MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions are expected 
on 26 and 27 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Apr
Speed: 423 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:   186000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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