[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 April 18 issued 2330 UT on 23 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 24 09:30:27 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 24 APRIL - 26 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Apr: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Apr 25 Apr 26 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was at Very Low levels on UT day 23 April.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available imagery
during the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed declined from
around 450 km/s to around 390 km/s through the UT day 23 April.
The IMF Bt varied mostly between 3 and 5 nT and the Bz component
of IMF fluctuated between +/-3 nT. Solar winds are expected to
continue to further decline on 24 April and stay at normal levels
during most parts of 25 April. The solar wind is expected to
become enhanced late on UT day 25 April due to the influence
of a positive polarity, north polar coronal hole (CH91+). Very
Low levels of solar flare activity are expected for the next
three UT days, 24-26 April, with a slight chance of C-class activity,
more likely from region 2706.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11100021
Cocos Island 1 10000011
Darwin 1 11100011
Townsville 2 12100021
Learmonth 3 21101121
Alice Springs 2 11000021
Culgoora 2 11000021
Gingin 3 21101121
Canberra 1 11000011
Launceston 3 21101121
Hobart 2 11001111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 11001121
Casey 8 33301122
Mawson 39 53301376
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2210 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Apr 5 Quiet
25 Apr 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
26 Apr 8 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian
region during the UT day, 23 April. Conditions are expected to
be mainly Quiet on 24-25 April. Due to the effect of a coronal
hole solar winds may become enhanced late on UT day 25 April,
which may result in unsettled conditions during late hours on
this day. Mostly unsettled geomagnetic conditions with some possibility
of isolated active periods may be expected on 26 April due to
the coronal hole effect.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal
26 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 23 April, MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly
values with periods of minor depressions as well as enhancements
in low and mid latitude areas. Mostly normal HF conditions may
be expected for the next three days (24 to 26 April) with the
possibility of minor to mild MUF depressions on 26 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Apr 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 2
Apr 2
May 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Apr 2 Near predicted monthly values
25 Apr 2 Near predicted monthly values
26 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 23 April, MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly
values over most of the Aus/NZ region with periods of minor depressions
as well as enhancements in the northern areas. Periods of minor
MUF enhancements were also recorded in some southern areas on
this day. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected in the
Aus/NZ region for the next three days (24 to 26 April) with the
possibility of minor to mild MUF depressions on 26 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Apr
Speed: 490 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 281000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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