[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 April 18 issued 2331 UT on 19 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Fri Apr 20 09:31:33 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Apr             21 Apr             22 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was at Very Low levels on UT day 19 April. 
Very Low levels of solar flare activity are expected for the 
next three UT days, 20-22 April, with a remote chance of C-class 
flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
imagery during the last 24 hours. On UT day 19 April the solar 
wind speed was mainly below 300 km/s. The IMF Bt was less than 
4 nT, mainly around 2 nT, and the Bz component of IMF was between 
+/-2 nT. Solar winds are expected to become enhanced on 20 April 
due to the influence of a recurrent negative-polarity equatorial 
coronal hole. The enhanced winds are expected to continue on 
21 April then start to wane on 22 April.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11010000
      Cocos Island         1   11100000
      Darwin               2   21010001
      Townsville           2   11111001
      Learmonth            1   11110000
      Alice Springs        1   1101000-
      Culgoora             1   10010001
      Gingin               1   01010010
      Canberra             1   10011000
      Launceston           2   11021000
      Hobart               1   00021000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     1   00021000
      Casey                2   12210010
      Mawson               3   11010032
      Davis                5   02130031

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   1211 2321     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Apr    13    Quiet to Active
21 Apr    13    Quiet to Active
22 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region during the UT day, 19 April. Conditions are 
expected to be at Quiet levels for the start of the next UT day, 
20 April, then increase to Unsettled to Active levels due to 
the influence of a recurrent coronal hole. Quiet to Active conditions 
are expected on 21 April then Quiet to Unsettled on 22 April.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
19 Apr     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      2
Apr      2
May      1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Apr     7    Near predicted monthly values
21 Apr    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
22 Apr    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%

COMMENT: On UT day 19 April, MUFs were near predicted monthly 
values over most of the Aus/NZ region. There were minor depressions 
in the Niue Island Region during the local day. There were a 
few cases of Sporadic E blanketing. MUFs are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly levels on 20 April, with minor to moderate 
depressions possible on 21-22 April due to forecast geomagnetic 
activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Apr
Speed: 297 km/sec  Density:    9.1 p/cc  Temp:    16500 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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