[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 April 18 issued 2344 UT on 20 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 21 09:44:11 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 21 APRIL - 23 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Apr:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Apr             22 Apr             23 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was at Very Low levels on UT day 20 April. 
Very Low levels of solar flare activity are expected for the 
next three UT days, 21-23 April, with a remote chance of C-class 
flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
imagery during the last 24 hours. A weak shock was observed in 
the solar wind at 2321UT on 19 April in response to a co-rotating 
interaction region (CIR) ahead of the high speed stream (HSS) 
from a coronal hole. The solar wind speed reached a peak of 637 
km/s at 20/1932UT and is currently around 620 km/s. The IMF Bt 
peaked at 23 nT at 20/0517UT then declined, currently around 
5 nT. The Bz component of IMF reached a minimum of -19.66 nT 
at 20/0812UT, and is currently fluctuating between -5 nT to 4 
nT. Solar winds are expected to remain enhanced on 21 April due 
to the influence of the coronal hole then start to wane on 22 
April.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Apr: Quiet to Major 
Storm

Estimated Indices 20 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region      30   33465442
      Cocos Island        24   33354451
      Darwin              22   33454341
      Townsville          30   43465342
      Learmonth           32   33555452
      Alice Springs       30   33465442
      Culgoora            27   23465431
      Gingin              37   33464562
      Canberra            34   33474432
      Launceston          52   34485442
      Hobart              37   24475432    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    62   25675663
      Casey               22   33453343
      Mawson              89   33664595
      Davis               52   22644675

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            3   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        29
           Planetary             48                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Apr    22    Unsettled to Active, with possible isolated Minor 
                Storm periods
22 Apr    13    Quiet to Unsettled, with possible isolated Active 
                periods
23 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 20 April and 
is current for 20-21 Apr. In the SWS magnetometer data for 20 
Apr, a weak (10nT) impulse was observed at 0022UT. Magnetic conditions 
were at Quiet to Active levels, with periods of Minor to Major 
Storm levels, across the Australian region during the UT day, 
20 April. Conditions are expected to be at Unsettled to Active 
levels on UT day 21 April with possible isolated Minor Storm 
periods. Quiet to Unsettled levels are expected on UT day 22 
April, with possible isolated Active periods, then Quiet to Unsettled 
on UT day 23 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Apr      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Apr      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Apr    17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      2
Apr      2
May      1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Apr    -5    Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
22 Apr    -5    Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
23 Apr     2    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 20 April, MUFs were mainly enhanced above 
predicted monthly values over most of the Aus/NZ region. There 
were minor depressions in the Niue Island Region during the local 
day and the Southern Australian Region after local dawn. There 
were a few cases of Sporadic E blanketing. MUFs are expected 
to have minor to moderate depressions on 21-22 April due to current 
geomagnetic activity, returning to near predicted monthly values 
on 23 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Apr
Speed: 288 km/sec  Density:    9.9 p/cc  Temp:     8650 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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