[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 April 18 issued 2343 UT on 18 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 19 09:43:24 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 19 APRIL - 21 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Apr: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Apr 20 Apr 21 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was at Very Low levels on UT day 18 April.
Very Low levels of solar flare activity are expected for the
next three UT days, 19-21 April, with a remote chance of C-class
flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
imagery during the last 24 hours. The weak CME from a filament
eruption that was observed on UT day 17 April has been modeled
and it is not expected to be geoeffective. On UT day 18 April
the solar wind speed was mainly around 300 km/s. The IMF Bt ranged
between 2 nT and 8 nT, and the Bz component of IMF was between
-5 nT and 4 nT. Solar winds are expected to become enhanced either
late on 19 April or early on 20 April due to the influence of
a recurrent negative-polarity equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 10023211
Cocos Island 2 11012110
Darwin 4 11012212
Townsville 5 11123111
Learmonth 4 10023211
Alice Springs 3 11012211
Culgoora 3 00023111
Gingin 4 10013221
Canberra 4 00023210
Launceston 5 10023221
Hobart 4 00023220
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Apr :
Macquarie Island 7 00034310
Casey 5 22212210
Mawson 15 33222235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0110 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Apr 12 Quiet to Active
20 Apr 12 Unsettled to Active
21 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mainly at Quiet levels across
the Australian region during the UT day, 18 April, with an Unsettled
period in the middle of the UT day. Conditions are expected to
be at Quiet levels for the start of the next UT day, 19 April,
then increase to Unsettled to Active levels either late on 19
April or early on 20 April due to the influence of a recurrent
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Apr 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 2
Apr 2
May 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Apr 7 Near predicted monthly values
20 Apr -5 15 to 25% below predicted monthly values
21 Apr -5 15 to 25% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 18 April, MUFs were near predicted monthly
values over most of the Aus/NZ region. There were minor depressions
in the Northern Australian region during the local day and night,
and minor depressions in the Niue Island Region during the local
night. There were a few cases of Sporadic E blanketing. MUFs
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly levels on 19
April, with minor to moderate depressions possible on 20-21 April
due to forecast geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Apr
Speed: 301 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 13100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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