[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 September 17 issued 2330 UT on 24 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 25 09:30:23 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 SEPTEMBER - 27 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Sep: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Sep 26 Sep 27 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 24 September,
with no notable flares. Expect mostly low levels of solar activity
for the next three days (25-27 September), with a remote chance
of M-class flares due to returning active region 2673. This region
in the previous solar rotation produced several M- and X-class
flares. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available
LASCO imagery on UT day 24 September. During UT day 24 September
the solar wind speed was near nominal levels, ranging between
310 km/s and 350 km/s, for most part of the UT day. From 24/2100
UT, the solar winds are on the rise possibly suggesting the onset
of high speed streams associated with a small recurrent equatorial
coronal hole. The IMF Bt was mostly steady, 6 nT during the UT
day. The IMF Bt also showed evidence of enhancements from 24/2100
UT. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between -5 nT and +5 nT.
Today, 25 September the solar wind speed is expected to increase
to moderate levels as the high speed stream associated with a
small recurrent equatorial coronal hole persists. Further enhancements
in the solar wind speed is expected from the 27 September as
another but much larger polar coronal hole extending to solar
equator, approaches geoeffective location on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 11111122
Cocos Island 3 11011221
Darwin 4 11111222
Townsville 6 11121232
Alice Springs 3 01111122
Norfolk Island 4 11211122
Culgoora 3 01011122
Gingin 4 11101222
Camden 4 11111122
Canberra 3 01011122
Launceston 4 11111122
Hobart 3 01111122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Sep :
Macquarie Island 4 00022311
Casey 8 23321122
Mawson 10 33112224
Davis 7 22222222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 1211 1132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Sep 13 Unsettled to Active
26 Sep 9 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Sep 18 Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 47 was issued on 22 September
and is current for 23-25 Sep. Magnetic conditions were at quiet
levels across the Australian region during the UT day, 24 September.
Today, 25 September, the magnetic activity is expected to be
mostly quiet to unsettled and at times could reach up to active
levels. The forecasted disturbed magnetic conditions are in response
to moderately elevated solar winds expected to emanate from the
small recurrent equatorial coronal hole. Mostly quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for the subsequent day (26 September)
as the current coronal hole effects wane. However, from late
27 September or thereabout the magnetic activity is expected
to reach active levels associated with another large recurrent
polar coronal hole soon reaching geoeffective location on the
solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values over the last
24 hours. Slightly enhanced MUFs compared to predicted monthly
values are expected for today, 25 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Sep 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 10
Sep 5
Oct 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Sep 15 Near predicted monthly values
26 Sep 10 Near predicted monthly values
27 Sep 30 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly slightly enhanced to near predicted
monthly values over the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region.
The three day outlook (25 -27 September) is for the MUFs to be
slightly enhanced compared to the predicted monthly levels. This
is in response to the forecasted active magnetic conditions associated
with the passage of the two coronal holes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Sep
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 162000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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