[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 September 17 issued 2330 UT on 23 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 24 09:30:22 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 SEPTEMBER - 26 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Sep: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Sep 25 Sep 26 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 23 September,
with no flares. Expect mostly very low to moderate levels of
solar activity for the next three days (24-26 September), with
a chance of M-class flares due to returning active region 2673.
This region in the previous solar rotation produced M- and X-class
flares. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available
LASCO imagery on UT day 23 September. During the UT day 23 September
the solar wind speed was mostly near nominal levels, ranging
between 350 km/s and 400 km/s. The IMF Bt was mostly steady,
5 nT during the UT day. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between
-5 nT and +5 nT. Today, 24 September the solar wind speed is
expected to increase to moderate levels due to the arrival of
the high speed stream associated with a small recurrent equatorial
coronal hole. Moderately elevated solar winds are also expected
for 25 September.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 11102011
Cocos Island 1 1110000-
Darwin 2 1110200-
Townsville 3 11102022
Alice Springs 1 0110200-
Norfolk Island 3 11202011
Culgoora 3 01102022
Gingin 2 1110200-
Camden 3 11102021
Canberra 1 0110200-
Launceston 3 01112121
Hobart 3 01102121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Sep :
Macquarie Island 2 0111200-
Casey 7 2331210-
Mawson 7 2332210-
Davis 9 13322132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1120 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Sep 14 Quiet to Active
25 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 47 was issued on 22 September
and is current for 23-25 Sep. Magnetic conditions were at quiet
levels across the Australian region during the UT day, 23 September.
Today, 24 September, the magnetic activity is expected to be
initially quiet and then could reach up to active levels during
the UT day. The forecasted disturbed magnetic conditions are
in response to the expected corotating interaction region associated
with the a small recurrent equatorial coronal hole now taking
a geoeffective location on the solar disk. Mostly quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for the subsequent two days (25 -26 September)
as the current coronal hole effects wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values over the last
24 hours. Slightly enhanced MUFs compared to predicted monthly
values are expected for today, 24 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Sep 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available .
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 10
Sep 5
Oct 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values
25 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values
26 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. Today, MUFs are
expected to be slightly enhanced compared to the predicted monthly
levels. This is in response to the forecasted active magnetic
conditions associated with passage of the equatorial coronal
hole. Near monthly predicted MUFs are expected for the subsequent
two days, 25 - 26 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Sep
Speed: 378 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 160000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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