[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 September 17 issued 2330 UT on 17 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 18 09:30:20 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Sep:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Sep             19 Sep             20 Sep
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 17 September, 
with no flares. Expect very low levels of solar activity for 
the next three UT days (18-20 September) with a weak chance of 
C-class flares. The CMEs first observed in the satellite imagery 
starting at 16/1212 UT and another starting at 17/1200 UT are 
determined to be far side events and therefore will not arrive 
at earth. The solar wind speed remained at very high level, 650-750 
km/s, on UT day 17 September. This was in response to the high 
speed streams emanating from the Northern Hemisphere coronal 
hole. The IMF Bt varied between 4 nT and 8 nT during the UT day. 
The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between -5 nT and 5 nT. The 
two day outlook (18-19 September) is for the solar winds to gradually 
start decreasing as the effects of coronal hole begin to wane.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Sep: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 17 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   22224321
      Cocos Island         8   12224310
      Darwin               9   22224311
      Townsville          10   22224321
      Learmonth           17   22235521
      Alice Springs       10   22224321
      Norfolk Island       7   22223211
      Culgoora             8   22223321
      Gingin              13   32224422
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             8   22223321
      Launceston          14   22334422
      Hobart               9   22233321    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    22   33245531
      Casey               17   34433332
      Mawson              30   55544342
      Davis               16   24443322

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           13   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              66   (Active)
      Canberra            75   (Active)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        23
           Planetary             30   5633 4433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active
19 Sep    11    Unsettled
20 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions were observed 
across the Australian region during the UT day, 17 September. 
These disturbed conditions were in response to the high speed 
streams (HSS) associated with the polar coronal hole. The two 
day (18 - 19 September) forecast is for the magnetic activity 
to be between unsettled to active levels, and sometimes may be 
reaching minor storm levels, since the solar wind speeds are 
expected to be at moderately elevated levels. Mostly quiet conditions 
are expected from 20 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values over the last 
24 hours. Similar HF conditions are expected for today, 18 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Sep     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      10
Sep      5
Oct      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values
19 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values
20 Sep     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region, with minor periods 
of enhancements. MUFs in the Australian/NZ region are expected 
to be slightly depressed to near monthly predicted values for 
the next three UT days (18-20 September). These minor depressions 
are the aftermath of the observed minor storm conditions on 15-16 
September

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Sep
Speed: 694 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:   479000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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