[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 September 17 issued 2330 UT on 18 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 19 09:30:19 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 SEPTEMBER - 21 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Sep:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Sep             20 Sep             21 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               73/9

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 18 September, 
with no flares. Expect very low levels of solar activity for 
the next three UT days (19-21 September) with a weak chance of 
C-class flares. On UT day 18 September, the solar wind speed 
remained at high to very high levels and was gradually decreasing, 
varying in the range 570-700 km/s. This was in response to the 
high speed streams emanating from the Northern Hemisphere coronal 
hole. The IMF Bt varied between 1 nT and 7 nT during the UT day. 
The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between -5 nT and 5 nT. The 
three day outlook (19-21 September) is for the solar winds to 
gradually decrease as the effects of coronal hole wane. ACE EPAM 
data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 18/1815 
UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity 
over next 24-36 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Sep: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 18 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   32433212
      Cocos Island         8   22323221
      Darwin              12   32433212
      Townsville          13   32443212
      Learmonth           13   32433223
      Alice Springs       12   32433212
      Norfolk Island      13   32532212
      Culgoora            13   32443212
      Gingin              15   32443322
      Canberra             9   22432112
      Launceston          18   33543223
      Hobart              16   32543212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    28   33655312
      Casey               17   44333323
      Mawson              49   56543366
      Davis               29   35553244

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              43   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            41   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             24                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             16   4433 3432     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Sep    13    Unsettled to Active
20 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled
21 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions were observed 
across the Australian region during the UT day, 18 September. 
These disturbed conditions were in response to the high speed 
streams (HSS) associated with the polar coronal hole. For 19 
September the magnetic activity is expected to be between unsettled 
to active levels, with a small chance for an isolated minor storm 
period, since the solar wind speeds are expected to be at moderately 
elevated levels. Mostly quiet conditions are expected from 20 
September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values over the last 
24 hours. Similar HF conditions are expected for today, 19 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Sep     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      10
Sep      5
Oct      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Sep     5    Near predicted monthly values
20 Sep     5    Near predicted monthly values
21 Sep     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. MUFs in the Australian/NZ 
region are expected to be slightly depressed to near monthly 
predicted values for the next three UT days (19-21 September). 
These minor depressions are the aftermath of the recent increase 
in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Sep
Speed: 653 km/sec  Density:    5.0 p/cc  Temp:   338000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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