[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 September 17 issued 2330 UT on 16 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 17 09:30:45 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Sep: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Sep 18 Sep 19 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 16 September,
with no flares. Expect very low levels of solar activity for
the next three UT days (17-19 September) with weak chance of
C-class flares. A disappearing solar filament starting at 16/0906
UT and finishing around 16/1056 UT was observed from near the
solar centre (N15E00). A possible associated CME was observed
in the coronagraph imagery starting at 16/1212 UT. More updates
on this event will be provided after the completion of the model
runs. The solar wind speed was at very high level, 650-800 km/s,
on UT day 16 September. This was in response to the high speed
streams (HSS) still emanating from the Northern Hemisphere coronal
hole. The IMF Bt varied between 4 nT and 6 nT during the UT day.
The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between -5 nT and 5 nT, with
predominantly negative Bz (southward) during the early part of
the UT day. The two day outlook (17-18 September) is for the
solar winds to remain at high levels as to the HSS associated
with coronal hole is expected to persist for a few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 16 Sep : A K
Australian Region 16 34334322
Cocos Island 11 33233321
Darwin 14 34333322
Townsville 16 34334322
Learmonth 17 34334332
Alice Springs 17 34334332
Norfolk Island 12 34233222
Culgoora 16 34334322
Gingin 16 34234332
Camden - --------
Canberra 14 34333322
Launceston 23 45344333
Hobart 21 44344333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Sep :
Macquarie Island 37 55446532
Casey 21 44533233
Mawson 86 56544786
Davis 29 34544453
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 11 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 75 (Active)
Canberra 71 (Active)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 31
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 30
Planetary 41 6443 4464
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Sep 20 Active
18 Sep 18 Active
19 Sep 11 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to active storm conditions were observed across
the Australian region during the UT day, 16 September. The Australian
antarctic region experienced minor storm conditions during the
last 24 hours. These disturbed conditions were in response to
the high speed streams (HSS) associated with the coronal hole.
The two day forecast is for the magnetic activity to be between
unsettled to active levels, and sometimes may be reaching minor
storm levels, since the HSS from coronal hole is expected to
persist for a few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
18 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values over the last
24 hours. Similar HF conditions are expected for today, 17 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Sep 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 10
Sep 5
Oct 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
18 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
19 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region, with minor periods
of enhancements and depressions. MUFs in the Australian/NZ region
are expected to be slightly depressed to near monthly predicted
values for the next three UT days (17-19 September). These minor
depressions are the aftermath of the observed minor storm conditions
on 15-16 September
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Sep
Speed: 679 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 485000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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