[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 September 17 issued 2354 UT on 06 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 7 09:54:37 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 SEPTEMBER - 09 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Sep:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M7.7    0928UT  probable   lower  Mid East/Indian
  X9.3    1202UT  probable   all    European
  M1.0    1731UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.4    1931UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Sep: 133/87


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Sep             08 Sep             09 Sep
Activity     High to very high  High to very high  High to very high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very High over the last 24 hours 
with region 2673(S08W35) producing multiple C-M class flares 
and two X-class flares; an X2.2 and X9.3 peaking at 0910UT and 
1202UTrespectively with associated Type II and IV radio sweeps. 
The X2.2 flare was associated with a CME to the South West first 
observed in LASCO C2 satellite imagery at 0948UT UT. A halo frontside 
CME was associated with the X9 flare observed in LASCO C2 satellite 
imagery at 1202UT and that it is earthward bound. Further analysis 
and model run will be given in tomorrow's report. A proton event 
is currently in progress. The greater than 10MeV proton levels 
reached 155 pfu at 2100UT. Greater than 100 MeV proton levels 
increased after the X2.2 flare. Region 2673 continued increasing 
in area and magnetic complexity, this region has the potential 
of very large flares. Expect the solar activity to be High to 
Very High over the next few days. Solar wind speed remained at 
nominal level over the last 24 hours near ~400km/s until the 
arrival of the anticipated CME at 23:08UT, when it jumped to 
over 550km/s, along with a solar wind shock. The Interplanetary 
Magnetic Field Bz component has increased following the shock, 
however it has the potential to swing southward as the CME passes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12222101
      Cocos Island         3   12122100
      Darwin               4   22112102
      Townsville           4   22221101
      Learmonth            6   22232201
      Alice Springs        3   12211101
      Norfolk Island       4   21221102
      Culgoora             3   12121101
      Gingin               5   22222201
      Camden               4   12221102
      Canberra             3   12121101
      Launceston           5   12222111
      Hobart               4   12122102    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Sep :
      Casey               17   44432323
      Mawson              12   33322323
      Davis               16   34432323

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            42   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             37                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             11   3322 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Sep    50    Active to Major Storm
08 Sep    30    Active to Minor Storm
09 Sep    75    Major to Severe Storm

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 42 was issued on 6 September 
and is current for 6-8 Sep. Magnetic conditions were quiet across 
the Australian region during the UT day, 06 September. The arrival 
of a CME late in the UT day 06 Sep will increase geomagnetic 
conditions over the early part of the UT day (07 Sep). Expect 
Active to Major Storm conditions with possible cases of Severe 
Storm conditions at higher latitudes for 7 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 05 09 2017 1020UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Sep      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Poor-fair
08 Sep      Poor           Fair-normal    Poor-fair
09 Sep      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Poor-fair

COMMENT: Depressed MUFs expected for high to mid latitudes on 
07-09 September due to increased geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Sep    31

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
       Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      10
Sep      5
Oct      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values
08 Sep     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30%
09 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30%

COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 37 was issued 
on 6 September and is current for 7-8 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) were near predicted monthly values to enhanced in the 
Aus/NZ region over the last 24 hours. Isolated periods of sporadic 
E were observed in some locations. Expect near predicted monthly 
values to enhanced in the Aus/NZ region today, 07 September. 
Followed by moderate MUF depressions on 08-09 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+09
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  8.0E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Sep
Speed: 521 km/sec  Density:   10.8 p/cc  Temp:   420000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

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Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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