[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 September 17 issued 2349 UT on 07 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 8 09:49:26 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 SEPTEMBER - 10 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Sep: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 06/2339UT possible lower West Pacific
M2.4 0502UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.5 0954UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M7.3 1015UT probable lower European
X1.4 1436UT probable all South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Sep: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep
Activity High High Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Probable Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours with
region 2673(S0958) producing three M-class flares, M2.4, M1 and
M4.7 at 0502UT, 0954 UT and 1015UT, respectively and another
X1.3 flare 1436 UT. Two CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 satellite
imagery the South West at 1036UT and 1512UT most likely associated
with the M7 and X1 flare respectively. A proton event is currently
in progress. The greater than 10MeV proton levels showed an additional
increase after the flaring activity. Greater than 100 MeV proton
levels remain elevated. Region 2673 maintained mixed polarity
and and complex magnetic configuration, beta_gamma-delta class.
It has the potential for very large flares over the next few
days before it turns around the West limb. Expect the solar activity
to be High over the next few days. As predicted the 4 September
CME arrived at 06/2308UT, when the solar wind speed jumped to
over 550km/s, along with a solar wind shock. Bz varied between
+/- 10nT for most of the day before sustaining southwards IMF
at -10nT from 2000UT. Another strong shock was observed in the
solar wind at 2230UT, most likely to be the earlier than expected
arrival of the fast CME from region 2673 associated with the
X9.3 flare. Bz is currently sustaining a southward orientation
at -30nT with solar wind speed up to 750km/s. These enhanced
solar wind conditions are expected to continue over the UT day
as the CME passes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Sep: Quiet to Major
Storm
Estimated Indices 07 Sep : A K
Australian Region 21 23442126
Cocos Island 14 23332125
Darwin 20 33332226
Townsville 21 33432226
Learmonth 20 33332226
Alice Springs 20 23432126
Norfolk Island 19 23432026
Culgoora 21 23442126
Gingin 20 33332136
Camden 23 24442126
Canberra 22 24442026
Launceston 36 34552127
Hobart 22 24442026
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Sep :
Casey 48 66634236
Mawson 49 46543257
Davis 55 45653267
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Sep :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 5 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 5 (Quiet)
Gingin 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 32
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 10 1112 3324
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Sep 75 Major to Severe Storm
09 Sep 50 Minor to Major Storm
10 Sep 30 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 43 was issued on 7 September
and is current for 8-9 Sep. Magnetic conditions reached Major
Storm levels late in the UT day, 07 September due to the earlier
than expected arrival of a CME. Possible Severe Storm conditions
over the next 24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 05 09 2017 1020UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
09 Sep Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor
10 Sep Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs expected for high to mid latitudes on
09-10 September due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Sep 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
No data available over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 10
Sep 5
Oct 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values
09 Sep -10 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
10 Sep -10 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 7
September and is current for 7-9 Sep. SWS HF Communications Warning
39 was issued on 7 September and is current for 8-10 Sep. Maximum
usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted monthly values
to enhanced in the Aus/NZ region over the last 24 hours. Expect
near predicted monthly values to enhanced in the Aus/NZ region
today, 08 September, followed by MUF depressions on 09-10 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+09
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.5E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Sep
Speed: 464 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 260000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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