[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 October 17 issued 2330 UT on 21 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 22 10:30:21 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Oct: Very Low
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 20/2328UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Oct: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 82/23 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 21 October.
However there was an M1.1 class flare on the limb that occurred
at 20/2328UT on the previous UT day associated with returning
active region 2682. This region is now visible on the solar disc
and has been renumbered as active region 2685. Expect Low to
Moderate levels of solar activity for the next three days (22-24
October). The M1 flare was associated with a Type II sweep (20/2335UT)
and coronal mass ejection (first observed at 21/0012UT via LASCO
C2 imagery), but the CME is not expected to impact the Earth.
No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO
C2 imagery up to 21/1648UT. The solar wind gradually increased
from 340 to 505 km/s after a solar sector boundary crossing at
~~21/0730Ut and is currently at ~490 km/s. The interplanetary
magnetic field Btotal ranged between 3-12 nT over the last 24
hours, currently, ~5nT, while the Bz component fluctuated between
+9/-6 nT. Expect the solar wind to slowly decrease over the UT
day and return to nominal levels. On 24 October expect the solar
wind to return to elevated levels due to a recurrent positive
polarity coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 11223222
Cocos Island 4 01222211
Darwin 6 11223212
Townsville 8 12223232
Learmonth 8 11233222
Alice Springs 6 11223212
Norfolk Island 6 11222123
Culgoora 6 11222222
Gingin 5 10222222
Camden 6 11222222
Canberra 7 11223222
Launceston 10 11333232
Hobart 7 11223222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Oct :
Macquarie Island 10 01244221
Casey 12 23422233
Mawson 14 23323343
Davis 11 22333232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 3232 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Oct 4 Quiet
24 Oct 30 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: The magnetic field over Australia was mostly at Quiet
levels with isolated periods of Unsettled levels during the UT
day, 21 October. The Antarctic region was at Quiet to Unsettled
levels with isolated periods of Active conditions. Expect Quiet
to Unsettled conditions to prevail for the next two days and
Unsettled to Active conditions with isolated periods of Minor
Storm levels on 24 October due to the recurrent coronal hole
becoming geoeffective. In the SWS magnetometer data at 21/0611UT
a weak (8nT) impulse was observed.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal
24 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Oct -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 20
Oct 5
Nov 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Oct -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values
24 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Near predicted MUFs in the Northern Australian region
and 15-20% depressions in the Southern Australian region for
the UT day, 21 October. Expect this trend to continue today,
22 October and return to near predicted MUFs for the following
two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Oct
Speed: 442 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 144000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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