[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 October 17 issued 2343 UT on 20 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 21 10:43:25 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 OCTOBER - 23 OCTOBER CORRECTION
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Oct:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Oct             22 Oct             23 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              83/24              83/24

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate for the UT day, 20 October. 
The visible solar disk is currently spotless. Expect Low to Moderate 
levels of solar activity for the next three days (21-23 October) 
with increasing chance of C- and M- class flares as returning 
active region 2682 rotates on to the visible solar disc. Currently 
there is a M1.1 flare in progress. No Earthward directed CMEs 
were observed in the available LASCO C2 imagery up to 20/1536UT. 
The solar wind decreased from 480 to 360 km/s over the past 24 
hours and is currently ~360 km/s. The IMF Btotal ranged between 
3-6 nT, while the Bz component fluctuated between +3/-5 nT. Expect 
the solar wind to remain near nominal levels for the next three 
days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 20 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21212011
      Cocos Island         3   11111111
      Darwin               4   21211111
      Townsville           4   21212012
      Learmonth            5   22212112
      Alice Springs        3   21112011
      Culgoora             4   21212011
      Gingin               5   21212112
      Camden               5   21222012
      Canberra             4   21222011
      Launceston           6   22223012
      Hobart               5   21223001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    11   22444000
      Casey                9   33322122
      Mawson              15   34322234

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              12   (Quiet)
      Canberra            35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12   3332 2423     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Oct     6    Quiet
22 Oct     5    Quiet
23 Oct     4    Quiet

COMMENT: The magnetic field over Australia was mostly at Quiet 
levels during the UT day, 20 October. The Antarctic region was 
at Quiet to Unsettled levels with isolated periods of Active 
conditions. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the next three 
days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Expect near predicted MUFs with minor depressions possible 
over the next three days due to very low solar activity levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Oct    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      20
Oct      5
Nov      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Oct    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
22 Oct     5    Near predicted monthly values
23 Oct     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Near predicted MUFs in the Northern and the Southwest 
Australian region and 20-25% depressions in the Southeast Australian 
region for the UT day, 20 October. Expect near predicted MUFs 
for the next three days with a chance of Minor depressions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Oct
Speed: 383 km/sec  Density:    9.3 p/cc  Temp:   115000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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