[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 October 17 issued 2330 UT on 13 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 14 10:30:50 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Oct: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low for the UT day, 13
October with no numbered sunspot group on the earthward side
of the solar disk. Expect Very Low levels of solar activity to
continue for the next three days (14-16 October). No Earth directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 13
October. The solar winds increased further throughout the UT
day 13 October, currently varying around 700km/s. The IMF Bt
varied between 5-10 nT. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated strongly
between +5 nT and -8 nT mainly southward. Expect the solar wind
to remain elevated at this level today, 14 October, and to gradually
decrease over the following two days as coronal hole effects
wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Oct: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 13 Oct : A K
Australian Region 20 24245333
Townsville 19 24145333
Learmonth 22 -3155333
Norfolk Island 14 23234333
Culgoora 17 13145333
Camden 22 24255333
Canberra 15 13144333
Launceston 24 24255343
Hobart 20 24245333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Oct :
Casey 24 44444433
Mawson 58 44337467
Davis 34 34435563
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 5 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 48 (Unsettled)
Canberra 51 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 45
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 29 5344 5434
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Oct 30 Active to Minor Storm
15 Oct 20 Quiet to Active
16 Oct 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 51 was issued on 13 October
and is current for 14 Oct only. Magnetic conditions were Active
to Minor Storm across the Australian region during the UT day,
13 October. Major Storm periods were observed in the the Antarctic
region. Active to Minor Storm conditions are expected to persist
on day one, 14 October. Geomagnetic activity is expected to decrease
to Quiet to Unsettled levels over days two and three (15 -16
October) as solar winds slowly decline.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Fair-normal Fair-poor Fair-poor
15 Oct Fair-normal Fair-poor Fair-poor
16 Oct Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Degraded HF communication conditions for the next few
days due to the increased geomagnetic activity caused by the
coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Oct -11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 20
Oct 5
Nov 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Oct -15 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
15 Oct -15 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
16 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near monthly predicted values to slightly
depressed across most of the Australian/NZ and Antarctic Regions
during the last 24 hours. Spread F and Sporadic E observed at
some locations. Possible Minor to Moderate MUFs depressions especially
in mid to high latitudes over the next two days due to the increased
geomagnetic activity caused by the coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Oct
Speed: 516 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 219000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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