[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 October 17 issued 2332 UT on 14 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 15 10:32:04 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Oct: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low for the UT day, 14
October. For the 6th day in row, no numbered sunspot group on
the earthward side of the solar disk. Expect Very Low levels
of solar activity to continue for the next three days (15-17
October). No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available
LASCO imagery on UT day 14 October. Over the past 24 hours, the
solar wind remained enhanced due to the recent coronal hole,
peaked at 750 km/s at 0730UT but gradually decreased to 600 km/s
currently. The IMF Bt varied between 9 to 5 nT. The Bz component
of IMF has been mainly southward, varying between +/- 7 nT. The
solar wind is expected to continue to decline, returning to nominal
values on 17 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Oct: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 14 Oct : A K
Australian Region 21 33454332
Townsville 18 33444332
Learmonth 22 33354433
Norfolk Island 16 33443322
Culgoora 18 33453322
Camden 18 33453322
Canberra 13 22443321
Launceston 25 33554432
Hobart 23 33554332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Oct :
Macquarie Island 48 44675522
Casey 25 45543332
Mawson 61 74554753
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 67 (Active)
Canberra 74 (Active)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 34
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 50 3424 6765
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Oct 20 Quiet to Active
16 Oct 12 Unsettled
17 Oct 8 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Active to Minor Storm across
the Australian region at the start of the UT day, 14 October,
then decreased to Quiet to Unsettled levels later in the UT day.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to continue to decrease over
the next three days as solar winds slowly decline. Active conditions
may be observed on day one, 15 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Fair-normal Poor-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Fair-normal Fair-poor Fair-poor
16 Oct Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
17 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF communication conditions for the next 24
hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Oct -15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Disturbed ionospheric support.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 20
Oct 5
Nov 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Oct -15 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
16 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
17 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 14 October
and is current for 14-15 Oct. Degraded HF conditions across most
of the Australian/NZ and Antarctic regions during the last 24
hours. Mild to Moderate depression observed across Aus/NZ region.
Disturbed periods observed for Low to Mid latitudes over the
past 24 hours. High latitudes experienced poor HF conditions.
Sporadic E and Spread F were also observed at times across the
Australian region which may have contributed to degraded HF conditions.
These is due to increased geomagnetic activity caused by the
coronal hole adding to low solar flare activity. Similar, yet
improving conditions may be expected to prevail over the next
few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Oct
Speed: 587 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 277000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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