[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 October 17 issued 2330 UT on 03 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 4 10:30:25 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 OCTOBER - 06 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Oct: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Oct 05 Oct 06 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 86/29 86/29 86/29
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low today (UT day 3 October).
The solar wind speed stayed mostly between 390 to 430 km/s today.
The IMF Bt varied between 3 and 6 nT today while IMF Bz showed
variations in the approximate range of +/-5 nT during the first
half of the day, staying southwards for relatively longer periods
of time. Bz stayed close to the normal values (between +/-3 nT)
during the second half of the day. There is a good possibility
for the solar wind stream to get stronger late on UT day 4 October
or early on 5 October due to the likely influence of a recurrent
negative polarity coronal hole. There are currently two sunspot
groups on the earthward side of the solar disk. Very low levels
of solar activity may be expected for the next three days (4
to 6 October) with a chance of C-class flares during this period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 22210101
Cocos Island 2 12200100
Darwin 3 22210001
Townsville 5 22310111
Learmonth 3 22210101
Alice Springs 3 22210100
Norfolk Island 4 22310002
Culgoora 3 12210110
Gingin 4 22200211
Camden 3 22210100
Canberra 3 22210100
Launceston 5 23310100
Hobart 5 23310100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Oct :
Macquarie Island 5 22410000
Casey 11 44321211
Mawson 23 45411245
Davis 11 24421212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2322 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Oct 6 Quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
05 Oct 10 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible
06 Oct 12 Unsettled, some active periods possible
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mainly at quiet levels across
the Australian region on the UT day, 3 October. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to be mostly at quiet levels on 4 October with some
possibility of isolated unsettled periods during late hours of
the day due to the possible arrival of enhanced solar winds from
a recurrent negative polarity coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity
may stay enhanced to unsettled levels on 5 and 6 October with
the possibility of some active periods on these days due to the
effect of the coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to enhanced
by 30 % during most parts of UT day 3 October. Some periods of
minor MUF depressions were also observed in some low-latitude
regions during this time. MUFs may be expected to stay near monthly
predicted values from 4 to 6 October UT days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Oct 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 20
Oct 5
Nov 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values
05 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values
06 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to enhanced
by 20 % across the Australian/NZ regions during most parts of
UT day 3 October. Some periods of minor MUF depressions were
also observed in the Northern Australian region during this time.
MUF enhancements of up to 30% were observed in the Antarctic
Regions on the day. MUFs may be expected to stay near monthly
predicted values from 4 to 6 October UT days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:31%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Oct
Speed: 444 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 187000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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