[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 October 17 issued 2330 UT on 02 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 3 10:30:26 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 OCTOBER - 05 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Oct: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Oct 04 Oct 05 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 86/29 86/29 86/29
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low today (UT day 2 October).
Expect Very Low activity for the next three days (3-5 October),
with a chance of C-class flares. The solar wind showed an increase
from 430 to 500 km/s during the first 4 hours of the day today
and then a gradual decrease to 400 km/s by 2300UT. The IMF Bt
stayed close to 5 nT today while the Bz component of IMF showed
variations in the approximate range of +/-4 nT. The solar wind
is expected to continue to decline, returning to nominal values
on 3 October, then possibly becoming enhanced late on UT day
4 October or early on 5 October due to the influence of a recurrent
negative polarity coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 12122000
Cocos Island 2 22110000
Darwin 4 21222001
Townsville 5 22223010
Learmonth 3 21122000
Alice Springs 3 12122000
Norfolk Island 4 12222001
Culgoora 3 12122010
Gingin 5 21123110
Camden 5 12223110
Canberra 3 12122000
Launceston 6 12233100
Hobart 3 12122000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Oct :
Macquarie Island 8 12244000
Casey 10 33422111
Mawson 11 34322221
Davis 8 33322110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 3033 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Oct 7 Quiet
04 Oct 6 Quiet
05 Oct 8 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mainly Quiet to Unsettled
across the Australian region on the UT day, 2 October. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to be at Quiet levels on 3 and 4 October.
Geomagnetic activity may rise to unsettled levels on 5 October
due to the possible arrival of enhanced solar winds from a negative
polarity coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values with
slight enhancements in the high latitude regions on UT day 2
October. The three day outlook (3-5 October) is for MUFs to be
mainly near monthly values.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Oct 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 20
Oct 5
Nov 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values
04 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values
05 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values across
the Australian/NZ with slight enhancements in the Antarctic Regions
on UT day 2 October. The three day outlook (3-5 October) is for
MUFs to be mainly near monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Oct
Speed: 479 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 216000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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