[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 October 17 issued 2330 UT on 01 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 2 10:30:30 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Oct:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Oct             03 Oct             04 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    86/29              86/29              84/26

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 1 October. 
Expect Very Low activity for the next three days (2-4 October), 
with a chance of C-class flares. No Earth directed CMEs were 
observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 1 October. 
The solar wind remained enhanced due to the recent coronal hole 
but speeds continued to decrease over the past 24 hours from 
490 km/s to 430 km/s currently. The IMF Bt varied between 3 to 
6 nT. The Bz component of IMF has been mainly southward, varying 
between +/- 5 nT. The solar wind is expected to continue to decline, 
returning to nominal values on 2 October, then possibly becoming 
enhanced later on UT day 3 October or early on 4 October due 
to the influence of a negative-polarity coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 01 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   21232312
      Cocos Island         5   21211311
      Darwin               7   32222212
      Townsville          10   32232322
      Learmonth           10   32223322
      Alice Springs        6   21222311
      Norfolk Island       8   31232212
      Culgoora             8   21232312
      Gingin              10   32223322
      Camden               8   21232312
      Canberra             8   21232312
      Launceston          11   22342322
      Hobart               9   21332312    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    15   21354321
      Casey               18   44432422
      Mawson              42   53332755
      Davis               36   43532743

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              13   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             16   2332 4433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
03 Oct    13    Quiet to Active
04 Oct    16    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mainly Quiet to Unsettled across 
the Australian region on the UT day, 1 October. Conditions were 
mainly Unsettled to Active in the Antarctic region, with some 
isolated Storm periods. Magnetic activity is expected to be at 
Quiet to Unsettled levels on 2 October, then Quiet to Active 
on 3 October and Unsettled to Active on 4 October due to the 
possible arrival of enhanced solar winds from a negative-polarity 
coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Oct    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      20
Oct      5
Nov      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Oct    10    Near predicted monthly values
03 Oct    10    Near predicted monthly values
04 Oct    20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Over the last 24 hours, MUFs were mainly near predicted 
monthly values across the Australian/NZ and Antarctic Regions. 
Enhanced MUFs were observed in the Northern Australian Region 
during the local day. The three day outlook (2-4 October) is 
for MUFs to be mainly near monthly values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:33%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Sep
Speed: 511 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:   246000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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