[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 November 17 issued 2330 UT on 19 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 20 10:30:26 EST 2017 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Nov:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Nov             21 Nov             22 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 19 November. Very 
Low solar flare activity is expected for the next three UT days 
with a slight chance of C-class flares. No earthward directed 
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery. The solar 
wind speed decreased over the last 24 hours, starting around 
390 km/s and reaching a minimum of 340 km/s at 19/1700UT. It 
is currently around 370 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field 
(IMF) Bt fluctuated between 0-4 nT. The Bz component of the IMF 
fluctuated between +/-3 nT. The solar wind is expected to become 
enhanced on 20 November due to a recurrent equatorial positive 
polarity coronal hole. The effects of the coronal hole are expected 
to start to wane on 22 November.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12210111
      Cocos Island         2   01220101
      Darwin               4   22210112
      Townsville           4   22210111
      Learmonth            4   12220111
      Alice Springs        3   11210111
      Norfolk Island       3   11210012
      Culgoora             3   12210111
      Gingin               3   11220111
      Camden               3   12210111
      Canberra             3   12210011
      Launceston           3   12210111
      Hobart               3   12210011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     0   01100000
      Casey               11   34421112
      Mawson              15   23533132
      Davis               14   23542121

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2122 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Nov    18    Unsettled to Active
21 Nov    18    Unsettled to Active
22 Nov    13    Quiet to Unsettled, with possible isolated Active 
                periods

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet across the Australian 
region during the UT day, 19 November. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled 
conditions are expected for the start of today, 20 November, 
with conditions increasing to Unsettled to Active levels later 
in the UT day due to the influence of a recurrent positive polarity 
coronal hole. Unsettled to Active conditions should continue 
on 21 November, then become Quiet to Unsettled, with possible 
isolated Active periods, on 22 November.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
21 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
22 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Nov     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      4
Nov      5
Dec      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Nov     0    Near predicted monthly values
21 Nov   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
22 Nov   -15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%

COMMENT: Over the last 24 hours MUFs were near predicted monthly 
values in the Australian region. The Niue Island region experienced 
minor depressions during the local night. Isolated periods of 
sporadic E were observed throughout the Australian region. Over 
the next day, November 20, expect near predicted MUFs. The following 
two days, November 21-22, may experience minor to moderate depressions 
due to expected geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Nov
Speed: 405 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:   133000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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