[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 November 17 issued 2330 UT on 18 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Sun Nov 19 10:30:19 EST 2017

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov:  76/14

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Nov             20 Nov             21 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 18 November. There 
is currently one numbered active region, 2687, on the visible 
disk. Very Low solar flare activity is expected for the next 
three UT days with a slight chance of C-class flares. No earthward 
directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery. The 
solar wind speed decreased over the last 24 hours, starting around 
440 km/s and is currently around 390 km/s. The interplanetary 
magnetic field (IMF) Bt fluctuated between 2-4 nT and is currently 
around 2 nT. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between +/-4 
nT. The solar wind is expected to become enhanced later on 19 
November or early on 20 November due to a recurrent equatorial 
positive polarity coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 18 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21221111
      Cocos Island         3   11111211
      Darwin               3   21111111
      Townsville           4   21122111
      Learmonth            6   21212222
      Alice Springs        3   10211111
      Norfolk Island       4   11221012
      Culgoora             4   11221111
      Gingin               4   21211211
      Camden               4   11221111
      Canberra             3   11221001
      Launceston           6   21322112
      Hobart               4   21222101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     3   11321000
      Casey               11   34332112
      Mawson              15   34222225
      Davis                9   23332212

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1222 1001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Nov    16    Quiet to Unsettled, with possible Active periods
20 Nov    18    Unsettled to Active
21 Nov    18    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet across the Australian 
region during the UT day, 18 November. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled 
conditions are expected for the start of today, 19 November. 
Conditions may increase to Unsettled to Active later on 19 November 
or early on 20 November due to the influence of a recurrent positive 
polarity coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
20 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
21 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
18 Nov    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      4
Nov      5
Dec      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Nov     0    Near predicted monthly values
20 Nov     0    Near predicted monthly values
21 Nov   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Over the last 24 hours MUFs were near predicted monthly 
values in the Australian region. The Niue Island region experienced 
moderate enhancements in MUFs during the local day and minor 
depressions during the local night and dawn. Isolated periods 
of sporadic E were observed throughout the Australian region. 
Over the next three days expect near predicted MUFs to minor 
depressions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov
Speed: 441 km/sec  Density:    5.8 p/cc  Temp:   171000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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