[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 November 17 issued 2337 UT on 17 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 18 10:37:19 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 17 November. There
is currently one numbered active region, 2687, on the visible
disk. Very Low solar flare activity is expected for the next
three UT days with a slight chance of C-class flares. No earthward
directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery. The
solar wind speed decreased over the last 24 hours, starting around
510 km/s and is currently around 440 km/s. The interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) Bt fluctuated between 2-5 nT but was steady
around 4 nT for most of the day. The Bz component of the IMF
fluctuated between +/-4 nT. The solar wind is expected to remain
elevated over the UT day, 18 November, due to a southern near
equatorial negative polarity coronal hole, then become enhanced
on 19 November or early on 20 November due to a recurrent equatorial
positive polarity coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 12132001
Cocos Island 2 11121000
Darwin 4 11132001
Townsville 5 12232011
Learmonth 6 22132102
Alice Springs 5 12232001
Norfolk Island 5 12232002
Culgoora 4 12132001
Gingin 5 21132002
Camden 4 12132001
Canberra 4 02132001
Launceston 6 12232102
Hobart 4 12132001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Nov :
Macquarie Island 10 11352101
Casey 15 45332112
Mawson 11 33233113
Davis 8 23332111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14 4432 1013
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Nov 7 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Nov 16 Unsettled to Active
20 Nov 18 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet to Unsettled
across the Australian region during the UT day, 17 November.
Mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for today,
18 November, with isolated periods of Active levels possible
if the Bz turns negative for a prolonged period. Conditions are
expected to increase to Unsettled to Active on 19 November or
early on 20 November due to the influence of a recurrent positive
polarity coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
20 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted MUFs expected with minor depressions
likely in the higher southern latitudes due to weak geomagnetic
activity with seasonal effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Nov -14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 4
Nov 5
Dec 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
19 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
20 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Over the last 24 hours in the Northern Australian region
MUFs were Moderately depressed during the local night. In the
Southern Australian/NZ, MUFs experienced Minor depressions during
the local day. The Niue Island region experienced minor enhancements
in MUFs during the local day. Isolated periods of sporadic E
were observed throughout the Australian region. Over the next
three days expect near predicted MUFs to minor depressions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Nov
Speed: 492 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 229000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list