[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 November 17 issued 2340 UT on 20 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Tue Nov 21 10:41:00 EST 2017

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov:  74/11

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Nov             22 Nov             23 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              74/11              73/9

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with 
no earthward directed CMEs observed in the available LASCO imagery. 
The solar wind speed was at ambient levels for most of the UT 
day at ~350km/s. From 15UT onwards solar wind speed began a gradual 
increase due to anticipated influence of the positive polarity 
recurrent coronal hole and is currently 430km/s at the time of 
this report. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between +/-2 
nT between 00UT and 16UT. From 16UT onwards Bz increased in magnitude, 
ranging between +7 and -10nT. The solar wind is expected to remain 
elevated over the next 24-36 hours. Very Low solar flare activity 
is expected for the next three UT days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 20 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11101223
      Cocos Island         4   10101232
      Darwin               4   21101222
      Townsville           6   21111223
      Learmonth            6   11101233
      Alice Springs        4   11101222
      Norfolk Island       5   11122222
      Culgoora             4   11101222
      Gingin               6   11101233
      Camden               5   11101223
      Canberra             4   11101222
      Launceston           6   11201233
      Hobart               5   11101223    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     2   01010112
      Casey               10   33321223
      Mawson              19   32221246
      Davis               58   13391232

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   0221 0001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Nov    17    Active
22 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
23 Nov     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed for the Australian 
region over the last 24 hours. Unsettled to Active conditions 
with possible Minor Storm periods possible for 21Nov due to the 
onset of the recurrent positive polarity coronal hole. Quiet 
to Unsettled with possible isolated Active periods for 22Nov 
and mostly Quiet conditions expected for 23Nov.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
22 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
23 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for 20Nov. 
Minor depressions likely at high latitudes due to increased geomagnetic 
activity on 21Nov-22Nov. MUFs near predicted monthly values expected 
for 23Nov.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
20 Nov     7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      4
Nov      5
Dec      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Nov     5    Near predicted monthly values
22 Nov     5    Near predicted monthly values
23 Nov     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values over the last 
24 hours. Variable HF conditions ranging from periods of enhancement 
to minor depressions for Equatorial/Northern AUS and Southern 
AUS/NZ regions for 21Nov-22Nov due to expected geomagnetic activity. 
Periods of disturbed ionospheric support expected for Antarctic 
regions during this time. MUFs expected to be near predicted 
monthly values for 23Nov.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: 366 km/sec  Density:    8.1 p/cc  Temp:    16600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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